Betegy.com is a website that predicts results of football matches in the top five leagues in Europe. At £24.99 a month, BETEGY calculates the numbers and odds using algorithms to produce predictions for betting purposes and they guarantee a 60% return rate. Here at FootballBlog.co.uk we were allowed to have a unique insight to the prediction site, you can check them out yourself here.
The site have recommended bets, extreme bets and double bets available for the users to see. The recommended bets show the most common winner, the extreme bets show very unlikely results and double bets allows for multiple bets. The algorithm poses an accuracy rate of approximately 80% and it consists of many factors including points gained, goals scored, history of the two teams, weather conditions and even motivational factors like a players birthday or a family bereavement. All of these numbers are put into an algorithm to form a prediction. There are three odds you can bet on either a win, draw or loss.
To analyse how the site’s prediction accuracy I have recorded the results of five matches this week, one in each league. They are Tottenham v Manchester United (1-2), Wolfsburg v Stuttgart (2-1), Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao (2-1), Fiorentina v Napoli (2-1) and Bordeaux v PSG (0-1).
The official results were Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Manchester United, Wolfsburg 2-0 Stuttgart, Real Betis 1-1 Athletic Bilbao, Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli and Bordeaux 0-1 PSG. BETEGY correctly predicted two out of five matches with the Ligue 1 match being 100% correct. The likelihood for PSG to win were 38%, draw 35% and to lose 27%. PSG are the current Ligue 1 leaders and BETEGY chose a 1-0 win.
Looking at last weekends Premier League results, BETEGY successfully predicted just 3 out of the 10 results and two of the three correct predictions were of stronger sides beating lower sides (i.e. Chelsea to beat Stoke City and Manchester United to beat Liverpool). This is 50% under probability of success of 80%. My first impression was a dubious one, I had many arguments against it than for it. At first look it seemed like the predictions looked like any football fans picks as half of the predictions were a 2-1 result. The actual Premier League results of that round saw no 2-1 result at all.
Actual results: QPR 0-0 Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa 0-1 Southampton, Everton 0-0 Swansea City, Fulham 1-1 Wigan Athletic, Norwich City 0-0 Newcastle United, Reading 3-2 West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City 0-4 Chelsea, Sunderland 3-0 West Ham United, Manchester United 2-1 Liverpool & Arsenal 0-2 Manchester City.
My overall view of BETEGY is more negative than a positive. Just briefly looking at two rounds of football results BETEGY correctly predicted 40% in one round and 30% in the other which is clearly below the 80% probability of success they’ve been claiming. Although BETEGY did manage to correctly name one match out of 15 exactly right, I’m left wondering if they’d be able to bring their average up over the coming weeks.