Nothing in life is certain, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of things worth betting on. For most people winning bets are like your best friend when they get a new girlfriend or boyfriend; you don’t see them very often but when you do it’s so good you remember why you keep trying, then all too soon they go missing again.
Where most people go wrong is research, in that there is none. I mean who has time to look up the home and away records of both teams, how their recent form is, what the important team news is and any other circumstances that should be taken into account. I know what it’s like to hear a fact just before kick off or after the bet has lost that would have changed your view completely, if only you had known.
I am a firm believer that the vast majority of winning bets, are smart bets. I’m not saying all of them are and if your psychic tells you Wigan are going to win the FA cup, you have a dream that your team win 3-0 or if your alphabetti spaghetti spells out Suarez will get a hat-trick then by all means run down the bookies and accept fates gift with an open wallet. However for those times when fate doesn’t interfere with your view on the weekends football then a little research can go a long way, and this is where Don’t Guess helps the average individual that is too busy or lazy to do the research themselves.
I’m not claiming to be a gambling prophet and I have zero experience with a crystal ball so don’t get over excited. I am currently travelling round Australia and this has given me time to look into my bets more and make more informed decisions using all the available information, information which I don’t mind passing on to fellow sports fans that agree money won is so much sweeter than money earned. Now without any further explanation lets have a look at some games.
Champions league 18th/19th March
Chelsea Vs Galatasaray (1-1)
I respect Galatasaray and think Drogba will still be a threat but i can’t see any other outcome than a Chelsea win. It may not be by many and it may not be pretty but Chelsea know how to do the business at home. Chelsea have won 13 out of 15 games at Stamford Bridge in the premier league and although they lost to Basel they are awesome at home. Their title campaign took a blow at the weekend but I think that will just spur on and have full faith in Mourinho’s men to get the job done. Galatasaray arn’t great away from home either, winning only 3 of 13 away games so far in the turkish league, drawing a massive 8 of them! They may take a while to break down but it will happen sooner or later. Draw at half time and a Chelsea win wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world.
Real Madrid Vs FC Schalke (6-1)
I hate, hate, hate betting on teams that don’t need to win! If the first leg left the game a little bit closer I wouldn’t have minded betting on Schalke to get a draw but being 6-1 down means they have just as little to play for as Madrid, even the manager has admitted their out. Ancelotti has said he won’t be resting players ahead of the weekends el classico but it’s easy to see a few big names coming off after the 60 minute mark. In my opinion though Madrid will have the game won by then though, their record at home speaks for itself and they’ve won 6 of 7 European games so far this season and I think they will want to put on a show for the fans.
Borussia Dortmund Vs Zenit St Petersberg
A 2 goal cushion and 4 away goals to boot puts Dortmund in a very commanding position. Klopps men have won 8 of their last 9 European home games and I can’t see that changing against a team that has only won 1 from the last 7 in their own league. AVB may be watching from the stands but I think he’ll have his notepad out making notes on where to improve more than anything else. If the first leg is anything to go by a Dortmund half time/full time might be worth a bet at the right odds.
Manchester United Vs Olympiakos
Well, what to say about Manchester United. My next blog post will be concerning their season so far but it’s safe to say that the European giants are having a season that is bringing them down a peg or 2, or 10. I hate betting on United this season, it would feel safer crawling across the M1 blindfolded, but surely they will win this one! Olympiakos have lost all 11 other visits to England and although they won the league on Saturday they have lost 2 of their last 3 league games. I’m going for United to win this game because I think they will be too scared not too, Moyes might actually have a breakdown and be arrested for 11 counts of murder after any other result. Whether they will qualify or not, if you’ve got a coin then flip it.
Europa League 20th March
Victoria Plzen Vs Lyon (1-4)
I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if Lyon won this game, however as they don’t need to win and this is a difficult place to get a win i’m putting this one down as a draw. Plzen havn’t been beaten in 10 league games at home this season, drawing 4 of them. I can see Lyon happily accepting the draw and a low scoring game might be on the cards.
Valencia Vs Ludogorets (3-0)
I was surprised by the first leg of this match, Ludogorets had impressed me throughout the competition and at home I thought they’d put in a much better display. They have also won every away European game they’ve played this season, I can’t see them going through but I wouldn’t be surprised if they went back to Belgium with a consolation win. However I won’t be putting money on this game, it’s one of those where no result would be surprising as Valencia are far from the team they used to be this season.
Salzberg Vs Basel (0-0)
This will be a very close game between 2 even teams as shown by the first leg. Salzberg were on a 16 match wining streak before that game and their home form this season is outstanding. I like Basel and they are obviously a good team as Manchester United and Chelsea can tell you. I’m going for a Salzberg win in this game though, maybe a cheeky 1-0.
Napoli Vs Porto (0-1)
Napoli have scored 1 goal in each of their last 4 league game, I can see that carrying on into this game and Napoli getting a 1-0 win forcing extra time. Rafa knows how to handle a European tie and have only lost at home once in the league. Napoli to win and Higuain to score could be a good way to boost the odds as well.
Real Betis Vs Sevilla (2-0)
This result may have surprised alot of people, although derby games are notorious for being unpredictable. Betis are bottom of the league but continued to delight fans with a surprising European campaign. Sevilla were unlucky not to score in the first leg and I can see them making up for it here, I think they will go through never mind win. Whatever the result 1 things for sure, in a feisty game like this a red card being shown is always a good bet.
Fiorentina Vs Juventus (1-1)
This should be a very entertaining game however after losing 4 of their last 7 league games Fiorentina’s form is going downhill without any breaks. If Rossi was fit and playing it might change things but I can only see the Juventus steam train picking up more momentum by sweeping their rivals aside.
Benfica Vs Tottenham (3-1)
Being a Newcastle fan has taught me many things, along with how to cope with defeat I have learned to always respect Benfica after their display that knocked us out the Europa league last season. They are a quality side as Tim Sherwood and his men found out first hand. Tottenham are a shambles at the moment although they deserved a point in the north London derby. They will try their best here for the fans sake as well as Sherwoods but I think Benfica will outclass them again.
Anzhi Vs AZ Alkmaar (0-1)
Lets not beat around the Russian bush, Anzhi are awful. They have won 1 league game at home all season, and 1 European game. All the promise they had left with the mass exodus of their top quality players around Europe. I thought AZ Alkmaar would have won by more than 1, and Anzhi still have everything to play for. The Dutch side showed they are no great shakes either as they ran out lucky winners from the first leg. This game could go either way but i’m going to go with Anzhi’s improving record as they have only lost 1 game in their last 5 league games, AZ have been defending well recently leading to my 0-0 prediction. Im going to go for the draw but i’ll be interested in seeing the odds for a bore draw.
The Championship 18th March
Wigan Vs Yeovil
The FA cup holders and semi-finalists are on fire at the moment, winning their last 6 league games I think they will comfortably handle Yeovil who tend to struggle away from home. Im even going to go as far and say Wigan -1 will be a good addition to an accumulator.
Sheffield Wednesday Vs QPR
At the start of the season I would never have thought I’d be defending a decision to bet of Wednesday in this game, however QPR’s indifferent away form has lead them to losing 3 of the last 4 away from Loftus Road. Sheffield have won their last 2 at home and go into this confident after a good win against Birmingham. I can’t help but get the feeling that Wednesday might just have a Tuesday they enjoy.
Charlton Vs Bournemouth
Two solid draws for Charlton in their last 2 games have led me to thinking they may get a third. Bournemouth have won their last 2 away game on the bounce and are undefeated in their last 4. This will be a close game and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they come away with a share of the spoils.
League 1 18th March
Crawley Vs Wolves
Wolves seemed like they were absolutely unstoppable until they ran into a wall when Shrewsbury came to visit. Crawley will be no pushover as they have only lost 1 in their last 10 league games. I won’t be betting on Wolves to get their winning streak going again, however I can completely understand people that do.
Colchester Vs Shrewsbury
This game has draw written all over it, Shrewsbury have shared the points in 5 of their last 8 games. It was a 1-1 draw when they met earlier in the season and as people say, history has a habbit of repeating itself.
League 2 18th March
Northampton Vs Rochdale
I think someone needs to check the water in Northampton, usually a safe bet to lose they are unbeaten in the last 6 winning 3 of them. My friend signed for Rochdale recently and for that reason only I will be betting on them breaking Northampton’s run, although the fact that they have only lost 1 in the last 8 games makes me feel a little better about it. Rochdales away form could do with some improvment though W6 D5 L6.
Cheltenham Vs Wycombe
Won their last 2 home games and unbeaten in 4, I will feel confident adding Cheltenham to any bets this week. Wycombe are in poor form and I can’t see that changing anytime soon.
Kazier Chiefs Vs Ajax cape town 19th March
The Kazier Chiefs are on a 5 match winning streak and will be seeking revenge against Ajax cape town after a 1-0 defeat in the reverse fixture. Im going for a home win however you should know that the cape town side have drawn 3 of their last 4 games and have a 40% record for drawing away games, make your own mind up.
Accumulator of the post!
Chelsea, Dortmund, Juventus, Sevilla, Wigan, Cheltenham and Kazier Chiefs (lucky number 7)
The number of games I look at and the detail I go into completely depends on how much time I have. Usually it will be more leagues than this however last night after we had finished pruning the cherry orchard for the day the farmer asked us if we wanted to have some wine, and because backpackers are known for our politeness we said yes, obviously the research suffered along with my head in the morning.
I want to note that I am voicing my opinion on the games mentioned and giving you the reasons behind me backing them, I assume if you are old enough to bet you are old enough to make up your own mind. If you don’t agree with me, then don’t bet on it. Although if you have any other tips or reasons why you disagree with a choice I would love to hear about it.
The 3 rules that I stick to whilst gambling are:
1. Only bet on what you know
2. Only bet what you can afford to lose
3. Always know when to walk away
If you stick to these rules you never know, you might start getting that winning feeling more and more.
I will never ask for money on these posts however if you are feeling generous or maybe celebrating a big win then please consider donating to the charity link below, they help so many people through extremely difficult times and anything you could give would help them do this better.
If you have your own charity you prefer to donate to then please do. Karma is serious stuff and who knows, if you give a little you might just find some winning bets in your alphabetti spaghetti.