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World Cup 2014 Predicted Pots and Groups

The final draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup will take place on the 6th December, with the pots being announced sometime in early December. The seeding for the draw is based on the October 2013 FIFA World Ranking, and the teams will be arranged in 4 pots based on both seeding and geographical location. It has been confirmed that Pot 1 will contain Brazil, being the host team, as well as the top 7 ranked teams. Judging by previous years, the other pots will be sorted geographically, so we can have a decent guess as to who might be in the remaining pots.

Not including the teams in Pot 1, there are 9 European team, 5 African teams, 4 Asian teams (Australia takes part in AFC qualifiers, so counts as an Asian team), 4 North American teams and 2 South American teams. Therefore there will almost certainly be another pot of the next best 8 European teams, which leaves France as the remaining European team. Then it makes sense to put the Asian and North American teams in one pot, as there are 4 of each team, and the remaining teams in another pot, so we get the pots as shown in the table:

Pot 1 Pot 2 Pot 3 Pot 4
Brazil Netherlands Chile* USA
Spain Italy Ivory Coast Mexico
Germany England France* Costa Rica
Argentina Portugal Ecuador* Honduras
Colombia Greece Ghana Japan
Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Algeria Iran
Uruguay Croatia Nigeria South Korea
Switzerland Russia Cameroon Australia

Judging by previous years there will also be restrictions that no more than 2 European teams can be in one group, and for each other association there can be no more than 1 team, which places restrictions on the teams marked with * in Pot 3.

With big teams such as Netherlands, Italy and Portugal in Pot 2 and teams such as France and Chile in Pot 3, there is a real opportunity for multiple ‘Groups of Death’. Here are some examples of interesting groups that could occur given this set-up:

World Cup Winners’ Group

Brazil, Italy, France, Mexico

Contains 3 winners of the last 4 World Cups as well as Mexico, who are the current Olympic champions. This is also the most experienced group, as these teams have been to a combined 63 World Cups.

Play-off Winners’ Group

Uruguay, Portugal, France, Mexico

Contains 4 teams who reached the World Cup Finals via a play-off win.

Group of Meh

Switzerland, Greece, Cameroon, Iran

A team consisting of arguably the worst teams from each pot.

Confederations Cup Group

Brazil, Italy, Nigeria, Japan

Contains 4 of the 8 teams who played in the 2013 Confederations Cup. You could also have Spain or Uraguay instead of Brazil, and Mexico instead of Japan.

C Group

Colombia, Croatia, Cameroon, Costa Rica

A group containing teams beginning with the letter ‘C’.

Inexperienced Group

Colombia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ivory Coast, Honduras

These teams have only been to a combined 8 previous World Cups, with Bosnia and Herzegovina making their World Cup debut.

The “Not at 2010″ Group

Belgium, Russia, Ecuador, Iran

A group consisting of teams who were absent from the 2010 World Cup.

If you disagree with how the pots will be organised, or can think of any other groups that can be made, then please make a comment with your suggestions.

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1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. John Burns

    29 November, 2013 at 06:35

    About Pot three, I think this is how it will be dealt with:

    POT 3 will be divided into three ‘sub pots’. France will be placed in one, and Ecuador and Chile will be placed in the second. The five African balls will be placed in the third ‘middle’ bowl. stirred up, and then the five African balls will be placed randomly into the other two bowls one at a time, until the other two bowls have four balls in each of them.

    The first (French) bowl will only be drawn from to fill Groups with Brazil, Argentina, Columbia, or Uruguay. The second pot will only be drawn from to fill the groups with Spain, Germany, Belgium and Switzerland.

    All polite responses are welcome.

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