The draw for the 2026 World Cup will take place on Friday, but we could not wait. So FootballBlog.co.uk decided to use our AI supercomputer to simulate the whole thing — including the results of all 104 matches at the tournament itself.
Donald Trump will be involved in the real World Cup draw, but we can guarantee no government interference took place in our simulation.
2026 World Cup draw simulation method
The first phase of our World Cup draw simulation was to predict the six winners of FIFA’s March play-offs in order to get a complete list of the participants.
For this, our supercomputer used a formula that factored in FIFA ranking strength, recent competitive form, continental performance, Elo rating trends and squad depth, as well as a realistic random variance. Crucially, each match was only simulated once to ensure results were not skewed by favourite bias or repeated probability stacking.
Then we conducted a random draw, while also factoring in FIFA’s various rules, including the hosts being in pre-assigned groups, the top four teams from the world rankings being kept apart until the semi-finals if they win their groups, and no confederation other than UEFA having more than one team per group, with European teams per group capped at two.
Once the draw had been simulated, we used the same formula that had delivered the play-off results to predict all 104 games of the 2026 World Cup tournament. Read on to see the outcome in full.
Simulated results of World Cup qualification play-offs
| Path | Round | Match |
|---|---|---|
| Inter-confederation Path A | Semi-final | New Caledonia 1-3 Jamaica |
| Inter-confederation Path A | Final | DR Congo 1-2 JAMAICA |
| Inter-confederation Path B | Semi-final | Bolivia 2-1 Suriname |
| Inter-confederation Path B | Final | Iraq 1-2 BOLIVIA |
| UEFA Path A | Semi-final | Italy 2-1 Northern Ireland |
| UEFA Path A | Semi-final | Wales 1-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina (4-5 pens) |
| UEFA Path A | Final | ITALY 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| UEFA Path B | Semi-final | Ukraine 1-1 Sweden (4-2 pens) |
| UEFA Path B | Semi-final | Poland 2-1 Albania |
| UEFA Path B | Final | POLAND 2-0 Ukraine |
| UEFA Path C | Semi-final | Turkey 1-2 Romania |
| UEFA Path C | Semi-final | Slovakia 1-1 Kosovo (3-4 pens) |
| UEFA Path C | Final | KOSOVO 2-1 Romania |
| UEFA Path D | Semi-final | Denmark 2-0 North Macedonia |
| UEFA Path D | Semi-final | Czech Republic 2-1 Republic of Ireland |
| UEFA Path D | Final | Czech Republic 2-1 DENMARK |
Our simulation of the World Cup play-offs resulted in Kosovo earning qualification for the first time, but Iraq were denied a debut appearance after losing to Bolivia.
Meanwhile, Jamaica, Italy, Poland and Denmark were the other winners, all earning a spot in Pot 4 of the World Cup draw.
Simulated 2026 World Cup draw
| Group A | |
|---|---|
| Pot 1 | Mexico |
| Pot 2 | Colombia |
| Pot 3 | Uzbekistan |
| Pot 4 | Cape Verde |
| Group B | |
| Pot 1 | Canada |
| Pot 2 | Iran |
| Pot 3 | Paraguay |
| Pot 4 | Kosovo |
| Group C | |
| Pot 1 | England |
| Pot 2 | Austria |
| Pot 3 | Panama |
| Pot 4 | New Zealand |
| Group D | |
| Pot 1 | USA |
| Pot 2 | Japan |
| Pot 3 | Egypt |
| Pot 4 | Poland |
| Group E | |
| Pot 1 | Argentina |
| Pot 2 | Senegal |
| Pot 3 | Qatar |
| Pot 4 | Jamaica |
| Group F | |
| Pot 1 | Belgium |
| Pot 2 | South Korea |
| Pot 3 | Ivory Coast |
| Pot 4 | Czech Republic |
| Group G | |
| Pot 1 | Brazil |
| Pot 2 | Switzerland |
| Pot 3 | South Africa |
| Pot 4 | Jordan |
| Group H | |
| Pot 1 | Spain |
| Pot 2 | Croatia |
| Pot 3 | Saudi Arabia |
| Pot 4 | Ghana |
| Group I | |
| Pot 1 | Germany |
| Pot 2 | Morocco |
| Pot 3 | Norway |
| Pot 4 | Curacao |
| Group J | |
| Pot 1 | France |
| Pot 2 | Ecuador |
| Pot 3 | Tunisia |
| Pot 4 | Italy |
| Group K | |
| Pot 1 | Netherlands |
| Pot 2 | Uruguay |
| Pot 3 | Algeria |
| Pot 4 | Haiti |
| Group L | |
| Pot 1 | Portugal |
| Pot 2 | Australia |
| Pot 3 | Scotland |
| Pot 4 | Bolivia |
2026 World Cup simulation
Group stage
The group stage draw had been pretty kind to the three host nations, who all went on to top their tables in our 2026 World Cup simulation.
Canada had never previously earned a single World Cup point but they ended that drought by opening their Group B campaign with a 1-1 draw against Iran. That was followed by a first World Cup win against Paraguay and then a second against Kosovo.
Mexico were even more convincing in Group A, topping it with maximum points after beating Colombia, Uzbekistan and Cape Verde. But everyone walked away from Group A fairly happy. Colombia progressed in second place, debutants Uzbekistan snuck through in third, while Cape Verde celebrated their first World Cup point.
Panama and Qatar also won their first-ever World Cup points, moving them up the all-time World Cup league table, but Kosovo, Jordan, Curacao and Haiti all finished last with zero.
Scotland ensured this would be their best-ever World Cup performance as they finally got beyond the group phase courtesy of an unbeaten run against Bolivia, Portugal and Australia in Group L.
Elsewhere — much to FIFA’s delight — the top four ranked nations of Spain, Argentina, France and England all topped their respective groups, keeping them on course to make up an all-star semi-final line-up should they all make it that far.
Group A
- Mexico 2-1 Colombia
- Uzbekistan 2-0 Cape Verde
- Cape Verde 1-1 Colombia
- Mexico 3-1 Uzbekistan
- Cape Verde 0-2 Mexico
- Colombia 2-1 Uzbekistan
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 9 |
| Colombia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Uzbekistan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
Group B
- Canada 1-1 Iran
- Paraguay 2-0 Kosovo
- Kosovo 0-2 Iran
- Canada 2-1 Paraguay
- Kosovo 0-3 Canada
- Iran 1-1 Paraguay
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| Iran | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| Kosovo | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Group C
- England 2-0 Austria
- Panama 0-0 New Zealand
- New Zealand 1-1 Austria
- England 3-1 Panama
- New Zealand 0-2 England
- Austria 2-0 Panama
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| Austria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| New Zealand | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| Panama | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
Group D
- United States 1-1 Japan
- Egypt 1-0 Poland
- Poland 1-2 Japan
- United States 2-1 Egypt
- Poland 0-2 United States
- Japan 1-1 Egypt
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| Japan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| Egypt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Poland | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Group E
- Argentina 2-1 Senegal
- Qatar 1-0 Jamaica
- Jamaica 1-1 Senegal
- Argentina 3-0 Qatar
- Jamaica 0-2 Argentina
- Senegal 2-1 Qatar
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| Senegal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Qatar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| Jamaica | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Group F
- Belgium 2-0 South Korea
- Ivory Coast 1-1 Czech Republic
- Czech Republic 0-1 South Korea
- Belgium 2-1 Ivory Coast
- Czech Republic 1-3 Belgium
- South Korea 2-2 Ivory Coast
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 9 |
| South Korea | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| Ivory Coast | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Group G
- Brazil 2-0 Switzerland
- South Africa 1-0 Jordan
- Jordan 0-1 Switzerland
- Brazil 3-1 South Africa
- Jordan 0-4 Brazil
- Switzerland 2-1 South Africa
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| Switzerland | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| South Africa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| Jordan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Group H
- Spain 1-1 Croatia
- Saudi Arabia 0-2 Ghana
- Ghana 1-1 Croatia
- Spain 2-0 Saudi Arabia
- Ghana 1-3 Spain
- Croatia 2-1 Saudi Arabia
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| Croatia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| Ghana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Group I
- Germany 2-1 Morocco
- Norway 2-0 Curacao
- Curacao 0-3 Morocco
- Germany 1-1 Norway
- Curacao 0-4 Germany
- Morocco 2-2 Norway
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| Norway | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| Morocco | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| Curacao | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Group J
- France 1-1 Ecuador
- Tunisia 0-2 Italy
- Italy 1-0 Ecuador
- France 2-1 Tunisia
- Italy 1-2 France
- Ecuador 2-2 Tunisia
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| Italy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| Ecuador | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Group K
- Netherlands 1-1 Uruguay
- Algeria 2-0 Haiti
- Haiti 0-3 Uruguay
- Netherlands 2-0 Algeria
- Haiti 0-4 Netherlands
- Uruguay 2-1 Algeria
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| Uruguay | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| Algeria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| Haiti | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Group L
- Portugal 2-0 Australia
- Scotland 1-0 Bolivia
- Bolivia 0-2 Australia
- Portugal 1-1 Scotland
- Bolivia 0-3 Portugal
- Australia 1-1 Scotland
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| Scotland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Bolivia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Round of 32
The first-ever round of 32 in FIFA World Cup history served up 45 goals and two penalty shootouts, but no major shocks, although Erling Haaland’s Norway — who had dominated World Cup qualifying — were sent packing by Senegal.
For the co-hosts, the party continued as all three made it through to the last 16, with Mexico needing extra time to see off Morocco in a five-goal epic.
England also remained in the hunt, thanks to a 2-0 win over South Korea, but Scotland were sent home after losing to two-time champions Uruguay on spot-kicks.
- Colombia 2-1 Iran
- Argentina 2-0 Egypt
- Belgium 2-1 Austria
- England 2-0 South Korea
- Germany 1-1 Croatia (Germany win 4-3 on pens)
- Senegal 1-0 Norway
- Mexico 3-2 Morocco (after extra time)
- Portugal 3-1 Algeria
- Brazil 4-0 Uzbekistan
- United States 1-0 Paraguay
- Uruguay 1-1 Scotland (Uruguay win 5-4 on pens)
- Spain 2-1 Italy
- Canada 2-0 Qatar
- Netherlands 3-1 Australia
- France 3-1 Ghana
- Switzerland 2-1 Japan
Our 2026 World Cup simulation has England sailing past South Korea in the round of 32 (Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports)
Round of 16
The round of 16 began with a clash of the titans, which saw holders Argentina beat Germany 9-8 on penalties.
England then knocked out Senegal for the second World Cup running, before Mexico, the United States and Canada were all eliminated at the hands of global giants — Portugal, Brazil and France respectively.
With no host nations left to support, many neutrals would decide to throw their full support behind Lionel Messi, now 39, and Cristiano Ronaldo, 41, for one last World Cup.
- Germany 1-1 Argentina (Argentina win 9-8 on pens)
- Belgium 2-1 Colombia
- England 2-0 Senegal
- Portugal 3-2 Mexico
- Brazil 3-0 United States
- Spain 2-1 Uruguay
- France 3-1 Canada
- Netherlands 2-1 Switzerland
Quarter-finals
Three of the four quarter-finals went all the way to penalties. Argentina got the better of Belgium by winning a sixth World Cup shootout in a row, before England and the Netherlands held their nerve against Portugal and France.
The only quarter-final not to require a shootout was Brazil’s 2-1 victory over Spain.
- Belgium 1-1 Argentina (Argentina win 4-2 on pens)
- Brazil 2-1 Spain
- England 2-2 Portugal (England win 5-4 on pens)
- France 2-2 Netherlands (Netherlands win 6-5 on pens)
Cristiano Ronaldo’s World Cup career ended in a penalty-shootout defeat in our simulation (Yukihito Taguchi-Imagn Images)
Semi-finals
Arlington, Texas played host to an all-South American classic as Argentina ended Brazil’s perfect run with a 4-2 victory inside AT&T Stadium.
The Netherlands then beat England 2-1 in Atlanta to reach their fourth final.
- Brazil 2-4 Argentina
- Netherlands 2-1 England
Third-place play-off
A heartbroken England dusted themselves down after their crushing semi-final loss and rallied to beat Brazil in Miami.
Third place represented England’s best World Cup finish since 1966.
- England 2-1 Brazil
Final
The Netherlands had beaten Kylian Mbappe’s France and Harry Kane’s England — as well as Algeria, Haiti, Australia and Switzerland — en route to the final. But could they beat Lionel Messi’s Argentina?
A high-scoring final went all the way to penalties. Argentina had won their last six World Cup shootouts, including wins against the Netherlands in 2014 and 2022.
However, the Dutch held their nerve in New Jersey to become the ninth different champions of the FIFA men’s World Cup, finally triumphing in a final following defeats in 1974, 1978 and 2010.
- Argentina 2-2 Netherlands (Netherlands win the World Cup final 4-2 on penalties)
FootballBlog.co.uk simulated the entire 2026 World Cup and the Netherlands ended up as champions (Yukihito Taguchi-Imagn Images)
2026 World Cup simulation summary
Our 2026 World Cup simulation forecasts that there will be a first-time winner next summer.
It also predicts that Lionel Messi will reach his third World Cup final and that England will take home bronze medals.
Our simulation delivered 275 goals across 104 games. That works out at 2.64 per match on average, which is the same average as the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
As fun as it was to simulate the 2026 World Cup, nothing compares to the real thing, which is little more than six months away.
Zielinski appears to confirm Dumfries to Real Madrid and drops Lewandowski Serie A hint- Juventus Shortlist Six Strikers to Replace Dusan Vlahovic
- INEOS identify Morgan Rogers as long-term Bruno Fernandes successor at Man Utd
- Roma line up opening offer for Mason Greenwood as top target named
- Real Madrid reportedly strike £120m agreement for Enzo Fernandez
- Paul Scholes Says Marcus Rashford Should Make Shock Arsenal Move
- Romano reveals Man Utd plan after Ederson as £50.5m player heads for exit
- Liverpool Stunned as Ibrahima Konate Was Open to Man Utd or Chelsea Move
- Alex Scott Contract Delay Puts Man Utd and Chelsea on Alert
- Rafael Leao Offered to Arsenal as Man Utd Twist Changes the Picture
