Arsenal’s Awful Record Without Gabriel Suggests Injury Blow Could Derail Premier League Title Bid

Gabriel Magalhaes has been Arsenal’s main man so far this season.

The Brazilian star — who is rated as the fifth most valuable centre-back in world football, behind Gunners teammate William Saliba — has been one of the main reasons that Arsenal have kept 11 clean sheets in 15 Premier League and Champions League games.

Gabriel has also played a crucial role at the other end of the pitch, scoring two goals and assisting three.

Gabriel injury blow rocks Arsenal

Gabriel has played every minute of Arsenal’s 2025/26 Premier League campaign so far, but he now looks set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines after picking up a thigh injury while on international duty with Brazil.

Arsenal’s medical staff fear that he could miss at least one month, possibly two, with further tests planned this week to confirm the diagnosis. The defender limped off during Brazil’s 2-0 friendly win over Senegal on Saturday, which took place in London at Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium.

This setback comes at a time when Arsenal are already contending with injuries to several other key players.

Which Arsenal games will Gabriel miss with his thigh injury?

Gabriel will miss Arsenal’s London derbies against Tottenham and Chelsea in the Premier League later this month.

He will also be sidelined for next week’s Champions League clash with Bayern Munich — which has been billed as a meeting of the two best teams in the world right now.

Gabriel looks likely to be unavailable for the games against Brentford, Aston Villa, Club Brugge and Wolves too.

But he could return in time to face Everton on December 20 if his injury lay-off lasts only one month.

However, if his thigh injury sidelines him for two full months then Gabriel will also miss the Everton game, as well as further matches against Crystal Palace (Carabao Cup), Brighton, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest.

Arsenal have struggled without Gabriel in recent seasons

Since the start of the 2021/22 season, Gabriel has missed only 15 Premier League matches, but those absences have had a clear and measurable impact.

Arsenal have won just five of those 15 games without him, recording six draws and four defeats. That equates to a win rate of 33.33% and an average of 1.4 points per game — numbers that fall far below the standard required of a title-challenging team.

With Gabriel in the side, the picture is very different. Arsenal have won 91 of their 137 Premier League matches with him, drawing 22 and losing 24. That yields a win rate of 66.42% and an average of 2.15 points per game, which aligns much more closely with the level needed to maintain a sustained title push.

The contrast is stark and highlights just how influential Gabriel has become under Mikel Arteta.

Arsenal’s record with Gabriel vs without him

Arsenal’s last 15 Premier League results without Gabriel

Who will replace Gabriel during his injury absence?

Arteta does have viable alternatives, although none can replicate Gabriel’s exact profile. Piero Hincapie appears the most natural replacement because he is left-footed and comfortable defending large spaces, which allows Arsenal to maintain the balance of their high defensive line.

Cristhian Mosquera is another option after impressing when standing in for William Saliba earlier this season, but he is right-sided, which would force Arteta to alter the geometry of his back four slightly.

Arteta could also move Riccardo Calafiori inside from left-back, but doing so would disrupt two positions at once and would require a further adjustment on the flank, where Myles Lewis-Skelly would likely deputise.

Could Gabriel’s injury cost Arsenal the Premier League title?

Losing Gabriel at this stage of the season undoubtedly increases the risk of Arsenal’s title challenge being derailed.

He is central to the fluency of Arsenal’s defensive structure, both in possession and without the ball. His ability to win aerial duels, defend one-on-one, recover into wide spaces and organise the line makes him uniquely valuable within Arteta’s system.

When he is absent, Arsenal are notably less assured in transition and more vulnerable from set pieces.

Arsenal’s wider injury list only amplifies the problem. Martin Odegaard, Viktor Gyokeres, Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli and Kai Havertz have all been unavailable in recent weeks, leaving Arteta with fewer options in midfield and attack. The cumulative effect is a squad pushed to its physical limits ahead of a demanding winter fixture schedule.

One positive for Arsenal is that they will not have any players heading to the Africa Cup of Nations in December.

But if Gabriel has played his last game of 2025, don’t be surprised if Arsenal have been replaced as Premier League leaders by the time he returns.