Liverpool face a full-circle moment against Nottingham Forest. Will they be ready?

As Arne Slot contemplates the prospect of Nottingham Forest’s visit to Merseyside this weekend, it seems inevitable his mind will drift back to the equivalent fixture last season. Liverpool’s defeat that day, the first of Slot’s Anfield tenure, haunted the Dutchman for months afterwards; in many ways, it has never left him.

Forest’s first victory at Liverpool since 1969 came courtesy of Callum Hudson-Odoi, who decided a game in which the hosts were otherwise dominant with a neat curled effort from the edge of the area. But it was Nuno Espírito Santo’s tactics that most dismayed Slot that September day.

“This is a different game than the one we’ve played till now because we faced a low block, so the team we faced played really low,” said the Liverpool manager as a run of three straight wins came juddering to a halt. “We had a lot of ball possession, but we were not able to create a lot.”

Slot also described the result as “a big setback”; in fact, it proved nothing of the sort. Liverpool would not lose another league game until the following April. By the time Fulham ended their 26-match unbeaten streak with a 3-2 victory at Craven Cottage, the title was all but won. Yet the defeat stayed with Slot, who referenced it repeatedly in the weeks and months that followed, starting with the very next game.

‘Unbelievable you lose to Nottingham Forest at home’

“Unbelievable you lose to Forest at home if you can play like this today,” mused Slot after a 3-1 Champions League victory over AC Milan at the San Siro.

The following weekend brought another resounding win, this time against Bournemouth. Forest, though, were still in Slot’s thoughts. “It’s a bit weird that we didn’t concede today and we did concede against Nottingham Forest because, looking at the chance creation, today the other team created much more than Nottingham Forest did,” he said. 

More than a month later, when Liverpool defeated Chelsea at Anfield to regain top spot in the league, Slot remarked: “In the end, you get the same amount of points as if you play Nottingham Forest.” 

Enough already? Not so far as Slot was concerned. After a successful second-half fightback against Brighton at Anfield in early November, he remarked: “I didn’t ask them to score two goals, I only asked them to play a different second half than we played against Nottingham Forest.” 

By January, when Liverpool visited the City Ground for the return fixture, Forest fans were openly delighting in the Dutchman’s inability to let it go. “We’re in your head, Arne,” they sang to the tune of Zombie, the 1994 classic by The Cranberries. They were not wrong.  

How Nottingham Forest exposed Liverpool’s vulnerability

Wounded pride was doubtless one aspect of Slot’s preoccupation with what was, at the time, the sole blot on his Anfield copybook. But a deeper reason was concern that his side could be vulnerable to teams that sat deep, defended in numbers, and sought to bypass Liverpool’s midfield with long balls.

That is partly why the club lavished such huge sums on the acquisition of Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike and Alexander Isak. What better way to counter a low block than signing a master locksmith like Wirtz? Who better to apply the finishing touches than Ekitike, the scorer of 15 goals in 33 Bundesliga games, or Isak, second only to Mohamed Salah in the Premier League goalscoring stakes last season?

Plainly things have not worked out as anticipated. Far from playing through opposing teams and scoring more goals, Liverpool have regressed, struggling to accommodate changes of personnel and approach. Comfortably the highest-scoring team in the division last term, they are currently sixth for goals scored. They have also faced more long balls than any other team (650), with opposing managers no doubt encouraged by Slot’s frank admission that “it is a very good strategy to play” against his side, one to which they “have not found an answer yet”.

Liverpool-Nottingham Forest invites focus on the bigger picture

Notwithstanding these well-documented difficulties, Forest’s visit to Anfield this weekend feels more like a big-picture moment than a time for dwelling on the finer details. In a sense, Slot’s tenure has come full circle. Defeat to Nottingham Forest last season had a defining impact on Liverpool’s season; it became a source of impetus, a reference point for the title-winning push that followed. Victory this time around could provide a more positive touchstone for the remainder of the campaign.

Liverpool’s loss at Manchester City before the international break marked the first occasion since the Forest defeat that they had failed to score in a league game. A reset is needed, and there could be no more opportune moment to implement it than at Anfield, against a team currently one place off the foot of the table.

That is not to downplay the threat posed by Forest. Sean Dyche knows what it takes to win at Liverpool. In January 2021, Dyche’s Burnley ended Liverpool’s 68-match unbeaten run at home with a 1-0 win; now he has better players at his disposal, and has had the better part of a fortnight to devise a winning strategy. Yet the fact remains that Liverpool are the reigning champions and have one of the strongest, most expensively assembled squads in the division. To put it bluntly, they ought to beat Forest.

Liverpool’s favourable run of fixtures

The significance of the game is all the greater because it marks the start of a relatively favourable run of fixtures. In their 11 games so far, Liverpool have faced Arsenal, Manchester United, Everton and Aston Villa at home, and Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester City away. That sequence incorporates all of their fellow top-six teams from last season and two derbies that are never less than fiercely contested. 

Before Liverpool travel to Arsenal on 8 January, however, they play Forest, Sunderland, Brighton, Wolves and Leeds at Anfield, and West Ham, Leeds, Tottenham and Fulham on the road. Only three of those nine games are against sides currently placed higher than 15th. Over the same period, Arsenal’s opponents include Tottenham, Chelsea, Aston Villa home and away, Brighton and Bournemouth. Following the thigh injury sustained by Gabriel on international duty, the league leaders may have to negotiate all those fixtures without the cornerstone of their defence.

The opportunity for Liverpool to make up ground in their faltering title defence is clear. But first they must ensure that, this season, Nottingham Forest’s visit to Merseyside remains memorable for the right reasons.