Manchester City’s Over-Reiliance on Erling Haaland is a Big Problem

Manchester City’s 2-0 loss to Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday night not only halted their perfect Champions League start, but it also exposed just how fragile their attack is without Erling Haaland.

Pep Guardiola opted to rotate Haaland out of the starting XI, handing Omar Marmoush the No. 9 role. Marmoush lasted 65 minutes, failed to register a single shot, and struggled to impose himself in any phase of City’s attack.

By the final whistle, the performance had hardened a suspicion that has been growing for weeks: Man City are incredibly over-reliant on Erling Haaland.

Haaland xG Shows Extreme Over-Reliance

Haaland is on course for his most prolific goalscoring season – he has been responsible for over 56% of Manchester City’s non-penalty xG (npxG) this season. This is an unprecedented number for Europe’s top five leagues.

For context, the highest npxG share recorded since 2017 by a title-winning side is 35%, from Robert Lewandowski’s 41-goal Bundesliga season. Haaland is at 57.5%, nearly double his own usage rate from City’s 2022-23 title win.

This is not normal variance, nor simply a striker in form. This is systemic. City funnel chance creation to Haaland at a level top sides rarely approach.

The Leverkusen match was the first real stress test of that system without him – and the results were stark.

City’s Attack Without Haaland

Against Leverkusen, Marmoush found himself isolated, unable to threaten in behind, and rarely touched the ball in dangerous areas.

He ended with zero shots, zero xG, and only three touches in the opposition penalty box.

City produced only low-value half-chances until Haaland entered, which sharpened their structure somewhat but could not salvage the game.

The game offered the clearest evidence yet that City’s attacking identity is now built around Haaland to a degree that leaves them exposed when he is absent or even locked down.

How To Stop Man City – Stop Haaland

The Leverkusen defeat comes off the back of a Premier League loss to Newcastle, who provided a similar blueprint in stopping Man City.

Centre-back Malick Thiaw had a great showing, tracking Haaland aggressively, restricting touches into his feet, and denying him space to turn.

Without Haaland’s gravity, City created little. Phil Foden produced a couple of moments of quality, but neither was part of a sustained attacking pattern.

This is a structural issue. Haaland is carrying Man City. When he can’t dictate the box, they lack other sources of shot volume.

How Haaland Elevates Man City’s Attackers

Take Phil Foden, for example. Foden’s trademark shots from the edge of the box are typically created because Haaland draws multiple defenders into the penalty area.

Take Haaland out, and Foden receives fewer second balls and shoots less, and the team loses its dual-threat dynamic.

For all Jeremy Doku’s improvement, he averages just 1.2 shots per 90, but his expected assists have jumped because so many of his dribbles end in cutbacks towards Haaland. He generates danger, but not on his own, despite how unplayable he can be.

Marmoush’s threat is magnified only when Haaland occupies defenders. Cherki’s ball-carrying becomes more dangerous when Haaland makes counter-runs. Savio is one of the few attackers with a natural shot profile, but he hasn’t been integrated enough to become a reliable option.

City have drifted away from wide forwards who create their own shots – the likes of Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus. And what’s left is a single-threat attacking structure with enormous upside, but huge risk.

Can Manchester City Win the Premier League Relying on Haaland Alone?

History says teams with this level of usage from one goalscorer do not win league titles.

Even Lewandowski’s 41-goal season came inside a Bayern team generating mountains of xG from everywhere. City are not that dominant. Not this year.

They are in a far more competitive league, where games are tighter, margins are smaller, where tactical unpredictability matters, and, perhaps more crucially, where injuries decide seasons.

If Haaland suffers a medium-term injury, which is not an unlikely scenario given his size, explosiveness and sprint volume, City will need an entirely different attacking structure.

The version we’ve been seeing against Leverkusen and Newcastle does not look apt.

Is Guardiola Intentionally Leaning Into Haaland Over-Reliance?

A tactical change has clearly taken place. City press less. They counter more. They rely on early balls into space.

This style plays to Haaland’s superhuman strengths, especially running in transition, and will get him a tonne of goals, as we have already been seeing this season. But how do they do that without him?

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Instead of building a multi-threat attack, Guardiola has doubled down on super-charging Haaland.

It may still work. But it leaves City more vulnerable than at any point in his tenure.

Haaland may stay fit the whole season and finish with 45 or 50 goals this season. But the principle remains: it is a huge risk for an elite club to build an entire attacking identity around one player.

Especially not in the Premier League. Especially not across 60 matches. Especially not when injuries are inevitable.

City have the resources and squad-building capability to create sustainable systems that survive absences. They’ve done it many times before.

This version of City, though, feels like the opposite: a team that works brilliantly with Haaland, but looks worryingly ordinary without him.