Manchester United sit just three points above the relegation zone after Saturday’s 3-1 defeat at Brentford, but could they really go down?
The Red Devils have never played outside of the Premier League since its establishment in 1992, while the last time the club suffered relegation was way back in 1974, before they bounced back with promotion to the top flight a year later.
But these are dark times at Old Trafford. United finished 15th in the Premier League last season — their lowest league finish since that relegation in the 70s — and the early signs are that little has improved, despite spending £232.4 million during a record-breaking summer transfer window for English clubs.
The team’s continued sluggishness has led many to ask when will Man United sack Ruben Amorim? Meanwhile, a list of candidates to be the next Man United manager is already being widely discussed by fans and pundits alike.
Could Manchester United get relegated this season?
On one hand, it would certainly be the most shocking relegation in Premier League history for a global giant like Man United to be expelled to the Championship.
But while it is still fairly unlikely that there will not be three worse teams than United after 38 rounds of fixtures, relegation can certainly not be ruled out.
Indeed, United have a 10.23% chance of finishing the season in the bottom three. According to Opta’s supercomputer, United have a 5.14% probability of finishing 18th, a 3.28% likelihood of coming 19th and a 1.81% chance of ending the campaign dead last.
Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United side are significantly more likely to get relegated than win the Premier League
Relegation for Man United over 125 times more likely than title glory
Opta’s model gives United just a 0.08% chance of winning the Premier League title this season. Compared with a 10.23% chance of relegation, dropping out of the division is over 125 times more likely than lifting the trophy.
The supercomputer’s thousands of simulations suggest that the most probable outcome is another year in mid-table. United’s single most likely finishing position is 12th (8.89%), and the combined likelihood of finishing between 11th and 15th is 42.4%. By contrast, the chance of a top-eight finish totals 21.06%.
For context, Liverpool are rated 46.5% likely to win the league, Arsenal 34.6% and Manchester City 10.12%.
Where will Man United finish in the Premier League this season?
The data doesn’t just say United are unlikely to challenge at the top — it suggests their focus this season may need to be on avoiding another humiliating battle in the bottom half.
| Position | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st | 0.08% |
| 2nd | 0.38% |
| 3rd | 1.00% |
| 4th | 1.96% |
| 5th | 2.90% |
| 6th | 4.09% |
| 7th | 4.90% |
| 8th | 5.75% |
| 9th | 6.43% |
| 10th | 7.41% |
| 11th | 8.00% |
| 12th | 8.89% |
| 13th | 8.67% |
| 14th | 8.84% |
| 15th | 7.96% |
| 16th | 6.91% |
| 17th | 5.60% |
| 18th | 5.14% |
| 19th | 3.28% |
| 20th | 1.81% |
Data from Opta as of September 29, 2025.
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