A new statistical study has declared that Liverpool are favourites to win the Premier League title and that they have a 28.9% chance of retaining their crown this season.
The data, published by the CIES Football Observatory, ranks Arsenal as second favourites with an 18.8% probability of finishing in first place.
But when those figures are set alongside the latest Premier League outright odds from football betting sites, both Liverpool and Arsenal look like bad value bets.
CIES Premier League title probabilities 2025-26
- Liverpool — 28.9%
- Arsenal — 18.8%
- Chelsea — 16.2%
- Manchester City — 14.4%
- Nottingham Forest — 7.9%
- Newcastle — 5.8%
- Aston Villa — 3.2%
- Manchester United — 2.6%
How are the probabilities calculated?
The CIES Football Observatory’s model combines a range of sporting, economic and demographic factors.
On the sporting side, advanced performance data such as passing and chance creation metrics are taken into account — with measures like passes made in the opponent’s half used as one example.
The economic dimension looks at the transfer fees invested in the players who are actually fielded, while the demographic element considers players’ minutes from the previous season and the level of those matches.
Together, these inputs are used to generate a probability score estimating each club’s likelihood of winning their domestic league.
Liverpool won the Premier League last season and are said to have a 28.9% chance of retaining that title
Why are Arsenal and Liverpool bad value bets for the Premier League title?
Liverpool and Arsenal may be the top two sides in the CIES model, but the gap between their betting odds and apparent statistical chances is striking.
Liverpool’s 28.9% chance of winning the league, as per CIES, translates to roughly 5/2 in fair odds. Yet bookmakers have them priced at just 7/5, implying a 41.7% chance. Backing Liverpool therefore means potentially accepting a significantly lower return than their probability warrants.
Arsenal’s case is even starker. If indeed they really have an 18.8% chance, their “true” odds should be around 4/1. Instead, the market has them as short as 15/8, implying a 34.8% chance. In other words, punters risk backing Arsenal at nearly double the likelihood that the data supports.
Both clubs may well finish in the top two again this season, but the numbers suggest their prices are inflated and offer little value for bettors.
Which teams offer good value in Premier League outright betting?
Looking elsewhere, several clubs emerge as better value when comparing CIES probabilities with bookmaker odds.
Chelsea are rated at 16.2% by the model, yet their 17/2 odds imply only a 10.5% chance. That gap of +5.7% makes them one of the better-value picks. Manchester City also fall into this category, with CIES giving them a 14.4% chance compared to 11.8% implied by their 15/2 odds.
The biggest disparities, however, are found among the outsiders.
Nottingham Forest, who replaced Nuno Espirito Santo with Ange Postecoglou this week, are given a 7.9% chance by CIES but are priced at 500/1 by most bookmakers — an implied probability of just 0.2%. Newcastle (5.8% vs 0.8%) and Aston Villa (3.2% vs 0.1%) also look heavily undervalued.
These numbers don’t make Forest, Newcastle or Villa likely champions, but they do highlight where bettors may find the most “bang for their buck” if the statistical model proves accurate.
Ange Postecoglou is said to have a 7.9% chance of leading Nottingham Forest to the title, but bookies make them 500/1 outsiders
Premier League title chances: Bookies vs CIES
- Liverpool — 7/5 odds (41.7%) vs 28.9% CIES probability. Value: -12.8%
- Arsenal — 15/8 (34.8%) vs 18.8%. Value: -16.0%
- Manchester City — 15/2 (11.8%) vs 14.4%. Value: +2.6%
- Chelsea — 17/2 (10.5%) vs 16.2%. Value: +5.7%
- Nottingham Forest — 500/1 (0.2%) vs 7.9%. Value: +7.7%
- Newcastle — 125/1 (0.8%) vs 5.8%. Value: +5.0%
- Aston Villa — 750/1 (0.1%) vs 3.2%. Value: +3.1%
- Manchester United — 50/1 (2.0%) vs 2.6%. Value: +0.6%
Who knows more: the bookies or CIES?
The contrast between the CIES model and the betting markets raises an interesting question: who knows more?
Bookmakers adjust their prices not just on data but also on weight of money, fan sentiment and the need to balance their books. CIES, on the other hand, rely purely on statistical indicators such as squad value, past performances and player demographics.
In truth, neither approach can fully capture the chaos of a Premier League season.
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