Where Will Sunderland Finish in the Premier League? Is the Owner’s Target Realistic?

Sunderland sit fourth in the Premier League table after 10 rounds of fixtures — but can they maintain their remarkable start over the course of the season?

The Black Cats began the campaign as hot favourites for relegation after winning promotion via the Championship play-offs. Promoted clubs have found it increasingly difficult to stay up in recent years; in each of the last two seasons, all three newly promoted sides went straight back down.

However, that trend looks set to be bucked in 2025/26 after Sunderland collected 18 points from their opening 10 matches. Remarkably, none of this season’s promoted clubs are currently in the relegation zone, although Leeds United and Burnley sit perilously close in 16th and 17th respectively.

How have Sunderland started the season so well?

Much of Sunderland’s early success has stemmed from their tactical flexibility under head coach Regis Le Bris. The Frenchman has built a well-drilled team capable of adapting their approach depending on the opponent.

Out of possession, Sunderland have surprised many with their aggressive high press — a brave strategy for a newly promoted side. Their man-to-man pressing unsettled even elite opposition, forcing mistakes from the back and helping them win the ball in advanced areas. When required, they drop into a compact 5-4-1 shape and defend deep with discipline. Sunderland’s defensive record so far includes clean sheets against West Ham, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and Wolves.

In possession, Le Bris prefers a positional style, using his defenders and midfielders to progress the ball through the thirds. Granit Xhaka, signed from Bayer Leverkusen in the summer and immediately appointed captain, has been instrumental. The 33-year-old said recently that he “did not expect to come back to the Premier League” but joined Sunderland because he “knew the project from the club” and wanted “to bring experience and show the guys day by day by working”. That attitude has set the tone for a tight-knit, hard-working squad.

Xhaka’s calmness, leadership and range of passing have given Sunderland control in key moments, while central defender Omar Alderete and goalkeeper Robin Roefs have excelled at the back. Alderete’s ability to turn recoveries into progressive passes has launched countless attacks, and Roefs has statistically prevented more goals than any other Premier League keeper so far this season.

Le Bris’ side are also strong from set pieces, scoring several times from rehearsed routines. They combine structure with bravery, balance with intensity — and that mix has made them the surprise packages of 2025/26.

Sunderland’s first 10 Premier League results 2025/26

Date	Fixture	Result
August 16	Sunderland 3–0 West Ham	W
August 23	Burnley 2–0 Sunderland	L
August 30	Sunderland 2–1 Brentford	W
September 13	Crystal Palace 0–0 Sunderland	D
September 21	Sunderland 1–1 Aston Villa	D
September 27	Nottingham Forest 0–1 Sunderland	W
October 4	Man United 2–0 Sunderland	L
October 18	Sunderland 2–0 Wolves	W
October 25	Chelsea 1–2 Sunderland	W
November 3	Sunderland 1–1 Everton	D

Will Sunderland get relegated this season?

It would be unprecedented for Sunderland to be relegated after such a strong start. No side has ever gone down after taking 18 points from their opening 10 fixtures.

In fact, in the past decade, every newly promoted team with at least 11 points after 10 matches has survived. That suggests Sunderland and Leeds (11 points) are on course to stay up. Burnley, with 10 points, face a tougher task — only one in five promoted teams with a similar record in the last 10 years managed to avoid the drop.

The latest relegation odds reflect that divide. Burnley are 4/9 to go down (an implied probability of 69.2%), while Leeds are 11/4 to be relegated (26.7%). Sunderland, meanwhile, are 9/1 for relegation — meaning bookmakers rate them as having only a 10% chance of going down and a 90% implied likelihood of surviving.

Relegation rivals Wolves currently have one of the worst Premier League records after 10 games and will require a sensational turnaround to avoid the drop.

Despite Sunderland’s superb start, just staying up would still be a brilliant achievement for any of the promoted sites. Dietmar Hamann told FootballBlog.co.uk in an in-depth interview this week: “Not many promoted teams stayed up in recent years.

“This year all three are doing well, you’ve got to say, because I thought they’re the most likely to go down before the season started. But Burnley is doing well and Sunderland is doing exceptionally well. It will be a big achievement for any of them, including Leeds, to stay up.”

What is Sunderland’s best-ever Premier League finish?

After such a promising start, Sunderland should be aiming to thrive, not just survive. Their best-ever Premier League finish is seventh, achieved in both 1999/00 and 2000/01 under Peter Reid. They earned 58 points in the first of those seasons — particularly impressive as a newly promoted side that took 20 points from its opening 10 fixtures.

That remains one of the top finishes ever achieved by a promoted club, although Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest both managed third place immediately after promotion in the mid-1990s, when the Premier League still had 22 teams and the financial gulf between clubs was far smaller.

Best Premier League finishes recorded by newly-promoted teams

• Newcastle United (1993/94) — 3rd with 77 points (from 42 games)
• Nottingham Forest (1994/95) — 3rd with 77 points (from 42 games)
• Blackburn Rovers (1992/93) — 4th with 71 points (from 42 games)
• Ipswich Town (2000/01) — 5th with 66 points (from 38 games)

Could Sunderland qualify for the Champions League?

With two nations set to receive an extra Champions League place based on UEFA’s coefficient rankings, as many as five Premier League clubs could reach Europe’s top competition in 2026/27.

Yet with 28 matches still to play, a top-five finish for Sunderland seemingly remains a long shot. Some bookmakers are offering odds of 66/1 on the Black Cats finishing fifth or higher.

Where will Sunderland finish in the Premier League?

Based on the latest betting odds, bookmakers expect Sunderland to finish comfortably above the relegation zone but just outside the top half. They are priced at 10/3 for a top-10 finish and 33/1 for the top six.

But owner Kyril Louis-Dreyfus believes that a top-half finish is a realistic aim. He recently said the “strong start gives us confidence” and that Sunderland are “preparing for all eventualities” in the January window, but ultimately “hope to enter the next transfer period targeting a comfortable top-10 finish”.

That ambition looks achievable right now, although in late December and early January Sunderland will lose more players to AFCON than any other Premier League club.

According to FootballBlog.co.uk’s AI supercomputer — which considers various factors, including form, squad value, remaining fixtures and AFCON absences — Sunderland are projected to finish between eighth and 11th. Meanwhile, our supercomputer estimates that the Black Cats will end up with 49 to 57 points.