Arsenal Rated as Champions League Favourites and Almost Four Times More Likely to Win Than Real Madrid – Fans Amused

Arsenal are the new outright favourites to win the UEFA Champions League this season.

That is not according to all bookmakers, with many still narrowly favouring holders Paris Saint-Germain, who beat fellow contenders Barcelona 2-1 on Wednesday night.

But stats specialists Opta have claimed after the latest round of fixtures that the Gunners have an 18.09% chance of ending the season as champions of Europe, with Liverpool (14.70%), PSG (13.96%), Manchester City (9.71%) and Bayern Munich (9.50%) rated as the other main contenders.

Arsenal rated as most likely Champions League winners this season

The Gunners beat Olympiakos 2-0 on Wednesday — ending a run of three consecutive home defeats against the Greek side — to move onto six points from their first two league phase games.

Bayern, Real Madrid, PSG, Inter Milan and Azerbaijani side Qarabag are the only other sides with maximum points at this stage.

However, 15-time champions Madrid have just a 4.94% likelihood of lifting the trophy this season, according to Opta, while Inter Milan are given just a 3.73% shot.

That means Opta are claiming that Arsenal — who have never previously won Europe’s top club competition — are almost four times more likely to be 2025/26 champions than the most successful club of all time.

Meanwhile, Qarabag — despite beating Benfica and Copenhagen so far — are given a 0.00% chance of going all the way.

Every club’s probability of winning the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League

Arsenal – 18.09%	Liverpool – 14.70%
PSG – 13.96%	Man City – 9.71%
Bayern Munich – 9.50%	Barcelona – 8.25%
Real Madrid – 4.94%	Inter Milan – 3.73%
Chelsea – 3.51%	Newcastle – 3.13%
Dortmund – 1.86%	Napoli – 1.45%
Tottenham – 1.20%	Atletico Madrid – 1.16%
Atalanta – 0.98%	Juventus – 0.66%
Sporting CP – 0.64%	Club Brugge – 0.46%
Union SG – 0.44%	Leverkusen – 0.29%
Marseille – 0.28%	Villarreal – 0.27%
Monaco – 0.21%	Benfica – 0.19%
Galatasaray – 0.14%	Frankfurt – 0.13%
PSV – 0.06%	Athletic – 0.03%
Bodo/Glimt – 0.01%	København – 0.01%
Slavia – 0.01%	Qarabag – 0.00%
Olympiakos – 0.00%	Pafos – 0.00%
Ajax – 0.00%	Kairat – 0.00%

Data provided by the Opta Analyst on October 2, 2025.

How far will Arsenal go in this season’s Champions League?

Based on Opta‘s numbers, the Gunners have a massive 89.64% chance of getting to the round of 16 and a 73.33% probability of reaching the quarter-finals.

They made the semi-finals last season and are given a 49.62% likelihood of going that deep again, while Mikel Arteta’s men apparently have a 31.64% chance of making the final.

Fans react to Opta making Arsenal Champions League favourites

While the football-predicting robots at Opta reckon Arsenal are the most likely team to win the Champions League this season, many fans are yet to be convinced.

Reacting to Opta making the Gunners favourites, one Chelsea fan replied on X: “Opta is on drugs”. A different Blues supporter joked: “Opta now have shares at Arsenal”.

Another sceptic added: “They’re always the favorites at the beginning of the season,” followed by a laughing emoji.

One Manchester United supporter responded: “They were the favorites to win the Premier League the last two seasons, and also the Champions League last season, right?”

Meanwhile, a dismissive Liverpool fan declared: “Judging by their bottling history, I’d trust Qarabag more”.