When Thomas Tuchel was announced as Gareth Southgate’s permanent successor as England manager in October last year, the objective was no secret.
The FA hired him because of his record of winning major titles. A statement published by the FA deliberately referenced the trophies he had won with Chelsea, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.
FA CEO Mark Bullingham said at the time: “Fundamentally we wanted to hire a coaching team to give us the best possible chance of winning a major tournament, and we believe they will do just that. Thomas and the team have a single-minded focus on giving us the best possible chance to win the World Cup in 2026.”
Thomas Tuchel calls England World Cup “underdogs”
England hired Tuchel to win the World Cup.
But speaking on Wednesday, Tuchel attempted to play down his team’s chances of lifting the famous trophy at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium on July 19.
“We will arrive as underdogs in the World Cup because we haven’t won it for decades, and we will play against teams who have repeatedly won it during that time, so we need to arrive as a team otherwise we have no chance,” Tuchel said.
Explaining the team selection decisions that influenced his latest England squad, he added: “We try to collect the guys who in the end have the glue and cohesion to be the best team, because we need to arrive [at the World Cup] with the best team.”
England manager Thomas Tuchel recently claimed his team were “underdogs” for the 2026 World Cup
Are England really “underdogs” for 2026 World Cup?
In contrast to what Tuchel said this week, England are among the favourites to win the World Cup based on the betting odds.
European champions Spain — who beat England 2-1 in the final of Euro 2024 — are the market leaders at 9/2, with joint second favourites England and France both priced at 7/1.
2026 World Cup probabilities based on betting odds
England’s outright odds of 7/1 suggest an implied probability of 12.5% that Tuchel’s team will win the World Cup next year.
Based on that logic, Spain have an 18.18% chance of going all the way, while 9/1 shots Argentina are given a 10% likelihood of retaining the title they dramatically won in Qatar.
| Nation | Betting odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 9/2 | 18.18% |
| France | 7/1 | 12.50% |
| England | 7/1 | 12.50% |
| Brazil | 15/2 | 11.76% |
| Argentina | 9/1 | 10.00% |
| Portugal | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Germany | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Netherlands | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Italy | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Uruguay | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Belgium | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| Mexico | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| USA | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Japan | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Croatia | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Denmark | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Sweden | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Switzerland | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Morocco | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ecuador | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Norway | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Chile | 175/1 | 0.57% |
How far will England progress at 2026 World Cup?
Bookmakers are not yet offering odds on England’s stage of elimination at the 2026 World Cup, so we cannot use betting as a guide for this.
Instead, we can look back at history. The fact the 2026 World Cup is the biggest ever, with 48 teams and a new format, makes this an imperfect study — as does the fact that the World Cup has changed size and shape multiple times down the years.
However, looking back at England’s previous World Cup campaigns does at least support Tuchel’s claim about history making his team underdogs.
The England men’s national team have competed at 16 World Cups to date, winning only one of them, back in 1966.
Although an imperfect method, it arguably suggests that England’s chances of winning a World Cup are therefore one in 16 (6.25%).
Using history as a very blunt indicator, England have a 3/16 (18.75%) likelihood of reaching the semi-finals and a 25% chance of failing to progress beyond the group phase.
England’s previous 16 World Cup performances
| Outcome | Times achieved | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Out in group stage | 4 | 25% |
| Progressed past group stage | 12 | 75% |
| Quarter-finals reached | 9 | 56.25% |
| Semi-finals reached | 3 | 18.75% |
| Finals reached | 1 | 6.25% |
| Champions | 1 | 6.25% |
Can England win the 2026 World Cup?
While the numbers above should serve as a reality check, they should not kill all hope of an England triumph at the 2026 World Cup.
Tuchel’s England team are not perfect. Recent sluggish wins over Andorra and a home defeat by Senegal in June prove that.
But England still have a deep pool of top talent, including a smattering of genuine elite superstars. Harry Kane, despite finishing only 13th in the 2025 Ballon d’Or vote, is the best central striker on the planet, while Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham are among the world’s best in their respective positions.
Yes, England can win the 2026 World Cup. But the same can be said of at least eight other nations.
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