xG Shows How Arsenal Have Bossed the Premier League Since October — but Is It All Good News?

Premier League title nerves are making Arsenal wobble right now. At least that is a common narrative after the Gunners failed to win for a third league game in a row by losing 3-2 at home to Manchester United on Sunday.

The truth is perhaps a little less damning than that. Indeed, recent xG data illustrates just how strong Arsenal have been since returning from the October international break.

Arsenal ahead of every other team in England based on xG supremacy

Over the last 16 rounds of fixtures, Arsenal have recorded both the highest xG supremacy and the most xP (expected points) of any team in the Premier League.

In fact, Arsenal are still top in both of those categories when the pool of data is expanded across England’s top four leagues.

Arsenal’s dominance is driven by excellence at both ends of the pitch. They have averaged 1.77 xG per game while conceding just 0.74, giving them an xG supremacy of 1.02 over their past 16 Premier League matches.

The next most dominant top-flight side during the same period has been Manchester City, whose xG supremacy of 0.68 is built on an attacking xG of 1.83 and an xG against of 1.16.

Meanwhile, the only other team in any of England’s top four divisions to have an xG supremacy of 1.00 or more is Ipswich Town, who have averaged exactly 1.00 over their last 16 Championship fixtures.

At the other end of the scale, Burnley rank last in terms of xG supremacy over their last 16 league games, with a figure of minus-1.16.

That is marginally worse than Sheffield Wednesday’s minus-1.15. However, it is the Owls who have the lowest xP — 0.62 per game, compared to Burnley’s 0.66.

Premier League teams ranked by xG supremacy since October 18

Team	xG For	xG Against	xG Supremacy
1. Arsenal	1.77	0.74	1.02
2. Man City	1.83	1.16	0.68
3. Brentford	1.84	1.33	0.51
4. Man United	1.70	1.16	0.54
5. Chelsea	1.87	1.44	0.43
6. Liverpool	1.58	1.16	0.42
7. Newcastle	1.64	1.27	0.37
8. Bournemouth	1.76	1.69	0.07
9. Leeds	1.60	1.53	0.07
10. Brighton	1.55	1.50	0.06
11. Crystal Palace	1.44	1.42	0.02
12. Aston Villa	1.39	1.48	-0.10
13. Nott’m Forest	1.21	1.31	-0.10
14. Tottenham	1.03	1.40	-0.38
15. Wolves	0.91	1.36	-0.45
16. West Ham	1.20	1.69	-0.49
17. Fulham	1.16	1.46	-0.30
18. Everton	0.94	1.48	-0.55
19. Sunderland	0.87	1.54	-0.66
20. Burnley	0.94	2.10	-1.16

Premier League teams ranked by xP since October 18

Team	xP per game
1. Arsenal	2.08
2. Manchester City	1.79
3. Brentford	1.70
4. Manchester United	1.67
5. Newcastle United	1.67
6. Liverpool	1.65
7. Chelsea	1.60
8. Leeds United	1.53
9. AFC Bournemouth	1.44
10. Brighton & Hove Albion	1.41
11. Crystal Palace	1.34
12. Aston Villa	1.33
13. Nottingham Forest	1.23
14. Tottenham Hotspur	1.21
15. Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.16
16. West Ham United	1.13
17. Fulham	1.13
18. Everton	1.01
19. Sunderland	0.93
20. Burnley	0.66

What is xG supremacy and what is xP?

xG supremacy is simply the difference between a team’s expected goals for and expected goals against in a match or across a run of matches.

For example, if a team posts an attacking xG of 2.0 and concedes chances worth 1.0 xG, their xG supremacy for that game would be +1.0.

Over longer periods, xG supremacy is often viewed as one of the best indicators of how dominant a team truly is, as it reflects both attacking threat and defensive solidity.

xP converts xG data into a projected points return by simulating how often teams would win, draw or lose based on the quality of chances created and conceded.

In simple terms, it estimates how many points a team should be earning per match if results followed the probabilities suggested by the underlying xG numbers.

What does this xG data mean for Arsenal?

On one hand, the xG data would appear to be cause for optimism for Arsenal fans.

The fact that they have the lowest xG against figure in the Premier League — just 0.74 over the past 16 games — is definitively a positive.

It suggests that their record for having the tightest defence in the Premier League is sustainable and not based on luck. It would also seem to suggest that Sunday’s 3-2 defeat by Man United — which was Arsenal’s worst defensive display in 122 games — was nothing more than an anomaly.

However, Arsenal’s attacking xG is perhaps a slight cause for concern.

Arsenal have marginally underperformed against their attacking xG over their past 16 games — scoring 28 goals from an xG of 28.32.

That might not sound like a big underperformance. But their conversion rate is significantly worse than that of Premier League title rivals Manchester City and Aston Villa.

City’s xG of 1.83 per game would suggest a baseline of 29.28 goals across 16 matches, but they have actually netted 32 times in that span.

Villa have outperformed their xG even more, scoring 29 goals from an xG of just 22.24 (1.39 x 16).

Optimistic Arsenal supporters may look at that data and hope that it suggests the attacking outputs of the three title contenders will soon level out in line with their respective xGs.

However, the worry is that the numbers may point to a flaw in Arsenal’s finishing rather than simple short-term variance.

It had been hoped that the summer signing of Viktor Gyokeres would allow the Gunners to consistently outperform their xG.

Gyokeres scored 97 goals in 102 games for former club Sporting Lisbon. But he has netted just five goals in 21 Premier League matches for Arsenal, with two of them coming from penalties.

If Arsenal are to convert their underlying dominance into Premier League glory, their attack may need to start matching the ruthless efficiency currently being shown by their closest rivals.

xG supremacy across the EFL

Arsenal’s dominance is not only clear within the Premier League. When the same xG metrics are applied across the EFL, the Gunners still come out on top.

Ipswich Town are the only side in the Championship, League One or League Two to come close to Arsenal’s level of xG supremacy, averaging exactly 1.00 over their last 16 league matches.

The best-performing teams in League One and League Two both fall some way short of that mark, underlining just how strong Arsenal’s underlying numbers have been since October.

Best xG supremacy by division (last 16 league matches)

Team (Division)	xG Supremacy
Arsenal (Premier League)	1.02
Ipswich Town (Championship)	1.00
Bolton Wanderers (League One)	0.77
Colchester United (League Two)	0.89