History Shows Why The Premier League Title Race Is Far From Over

We’ve taken at the Premier League title race over the years to see how often the team leading on New Year’s Day goes on to win the title.

Its been a thrilling title race so far in the Premier League.

With champions Liverpool faltering, Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa look to be the three sides in contention.

Tuesday saw league leaders Arsenal land a huge blow as they defeated Villa 4-1 at the Emirates.

Mikel Arteta’s men looked superb as they dismantled former boss Unai Emery’s side – who had been on an 11-game winning run.

Arsenal finish 2025 on top of the calendar year Premier League table once again.

But they will know there is plenty of work still to come, and they must be the best over a season, not a year.

History shows that the side leading art this stage of the season often fails to lift the title.

Premier League Title Race As It Stands

Looking at the current situation, Arsenal are five points clear at the top.

The Gunners will remain league leaders regardless of results on New Year’s Day.

But if Manchester City win at Sunderland, the lead will be cut to just two points.

A victory over third place Aston Villa sees @Arsenal end 2025 top of the table pic.twitter.com/YweIMBQ9mV

— Premier League (@premierleague) December 30, 2025

Neither side can afford a slip-up, with the pressure building into the back-end of the season.

And despite losing in North London this week, Aston Villa are by no means out of contention.

If they can put together another 11-game win streak, they will almost certainly close the gap.

How Often Does The Team Leading On New Year’s Win The Title?

Since the Premier League’s inception during the 1992-93 season, seven different clubs have been champions of England.

It’s obviously important to pick up as many points as possible from the off, but racing into an early lead isn’t always the key to success.

Often, it is easier to be the team hunting down the leaders, rather than the side on top knowing they can’t afford to drop points.

The ‘favourites’ tag can weigh heavy around a team’s neck, frequently meaning they crumble.

Have New Year’s Leaders Won The Premier League?

• Yes: 19 times
• No: 14 times

In 33 seasons, the side on top for New Year’s Day has gone on to lift the title 19 times.

That equates to barely more than half the time (58%), showing how little room there is for complacency.

Arsenal Have Bottled The Premier League More Than Anyone

Obviously, Arsenal would prefer to have their current points on the board than not.

But if one team shows that leading at this stage wins you no trophies, it’s Arsenal.

Teams Leading On New Year’s But Didn’t Win Title

• Arsenal – 6 times
• Liverpool – 3 times
• Man United – 1 time
• Newcastle – 1 time
• Norwich – 1 time

In the history of the Premier League, no side has led more times at this stage but failed to win the title than Arsenal.

The Gunners have topped the table on New Year’s Day six times before failing to lift the trophy.

That’s twice as many times as any other team in the Premier League era.

And despite winning the title three times, they were only top at this point in one of those title-winning seasons.

Will Arsenal Win The Premier League This Season?

The odds still indicate Arsenal are favourites for the title.

Mikel Arteta’s side have been superb all season, and will rightly enter 2026 at the summit of the table.

But history, especially Arsenal’s, proves just how little it matters at this stage.

MAKING A STATEMENT. pic.twitter.com/uTPfiGLtEt

— Arsenal (@Arsenal) December 30, 2025

The Gunners have fallen off badly in the latter half of numerous campaigns.

If they want to finally go one better than recent second-place seasons, they must maintain their form for the full 38 games.

Should they fail to do so, they will continue to build an unwanted reputation as perennial bottlers.