Why Sunderland Are Still Relegation Candidates Despite Superb Start

Sunderland are seven points closer to the top of the Premier League table than the bottom after 12 rounds of fixtures, but are they still relegation candidates?

The Black Cats were 2/5 favourites for relegation before the season began, despite splashing out £183.4 million in the summer when they were the seventh-highest spenders in a record-breaking Premier League transfer window.

Fittingly, they now sit seventh in the table after taking 19 points from a possible 36.

The ownership remains publicly bullish. Just three weeks ago, Sunderland chairman Kyril Louis-Dreyfus said he was targeting a top-10 finish this season.

The bookies are currently offering 5/1 on a top-half finish and 15/2 on Sunderland going down. But are those relegation odds overpriced? FootballBlog.co.uk takes a look at Sunderland’s position and how likely they are to maintain it.

Sunderland’s 2025/26 Premier League results so far

How many points will Sunderland need to stay up?

For years, it was widely accepted that 40 was the magic number required to avoid relegation from the Premier League.

In truth, the bar is generally a little lower than that. In the last 20 seasons, only once has a team earned 39 points and gone down.

Meanwhile, the average points tally of the team finishing 17th — the lowest possible position without being relegated — over the past two decades has been 37 (discounting points deductions).

Sunderland twice finished 17th with 39 points during that period — in 2011/12 and again in 2015/16 — and 39 should be enough again this season.

To reach 39, Sunderland require another 20 points from their remaining 26 games. That might not sound like too tough a task, but it should not be taken as a given.

Can Sunderland keep outperforming their xG?

Sunderland’s start has been excellent in terms of results. However, those results do not fully reflect the general balance of play in most of their matches, as highlighted by Expected Goals data.

Based on xG, Sunderland should have scored 12.64 goals so far and conceded 17.12. In the real world, they have scored 14 and conceded only 11.

If games were decided by xG instead of real goals, then Sunderland would currently be 15th in the Premier League — less than three points above the relegation zone.

One of the major reasons for Sunderland’s xG-defying form so far has been goalkeeper Robin Roefs, who has the best save percentage (79.2%) of any Premier League goalkeeper.

Perhaps Roefs is so good that he will continue saving Sunderland points all season by keeping out almost four of every five shots on target he faces.

However, it is more likely that his impressive numbers will dip closer to the league average — currently 68.3% — and Sunderland’s results will dip in turn.

Sunderland’s tough end to 2025

While 19 points from 12 games makes it look like Sunderland are set for a season of safety, their situation will feel a lot more precarious if they fail to add to their win column during a difficult festive period.

Sunderland’s next nine Premier League fixtures include two games against Manchester City, one against reigning champions Liverpool, a trip to Europa League winners Tottenham, a clash with fierce rivals Newcastle and only one match against a team currently inside the bottom six.

Optimistic fans will point to Sunderland’s October victory over world champions Chelsea among reasons to be confident. However, Premier League realism tells us that it is entirely plausible that Sunderland could come out of that run with little more than the 19 points they already have.

Should Sunderland fail to win at least two of their next nine games, you can be sure that their relegation odds will be cut significantly.

Sunderland’s next nine Premier League fixtures

Can Sunderland cope with AFCON absences?

Of Sunderland’s next nine Premier League fixtures, six clash directly with the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations.

Sunderland are expected to be one of the Premier League clubs most affected by AFCON 2025, with as many as nine first-team players heading to Morocco.

It is unlikely that all nine will be away for the full duration of the tournament. However, AFCON still has the potential to make one of the busiest periods on the Premier League calendar extra tricky for manager Regis Le Bris.

Sunderland are also unlikely to strengthen significantly during the January transfer window, having been among the biggest spenders over the summer.

Will Sunderland avoid relegation?

Sunderland have made an excellent start and their fans have every right to look confidently ahead to the remainder of the campaign.

However, it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility of them being drawn into a relegation scrap — especially after watching them get played off the park on Saturday by 15th-place Fulham, who registered 16 more shots than Le Bris’s team.

History tells us another 20 points should be enough to keep the Black Cats in the top flight. But multiple factors suggest those 20 could be much harder to come by than their first 19.