Is the Premier League Title Race Over? Can Arsenal Win It by a Record Margin?

Jamie Redknapp will be “amazed” if Arsenal fail to win the Premier League title after a dream weekend for Mikel Arteta’s men left them six points clear of Manchester City.

Arsenal went into matchweek 24 with a four-point lead over both City and Villa. The Gunners then won 4-0 away at Leeds on Saturday to put the pressure on their rivals, who were both in action the following day.

Villa buckled under the pressure by losing 1-0 at home to 10-man Brentford, before City blew a 2-0 lead to draw 2-2 at Tottenham Hotspur.

Those results left Arsenal six points above City and seven clear of Villa with 14 rounds of fixtures remaining.

Top of the Premier League table with 14 rounds of fixtures remaining

Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1. Arsenal	24	16	5	3	29	53
2. Man City	24	14	5	5	26	47
3. Aston Villa	24	14	4	6	9	46
4. Man United	24	11	8	5	8	41
5. Chelsea	24	11	7	6	15	40
6. Liverpool	24	11	6	7	6	39

Is the Premier League title race over?

Former Liverpool and Tottenham midfielder Redknapp declared the Premier League title race over following Man City’s collapse at Tottenham on Sunday.

Speaking as a pundit on Sky Sports, Redknapp said: “Mikel Arteta will have been at home this afternoon watching the two games and thinking, ‘I fancy Villa to beat Brentford’ — they didn’t. Then he would have seen this [Tottenham vs Man City], second half, thinking, ‘5-0’. He will be opening a nice bottle of Rioja tonight.

“This is it. I think this is the title done now for Arsenal and I think they can go on and win it by eight, 10 points. I would be amazed if they don’t.

“They have got the players… I think they had been getting a little bit anxious — the crowd, the connection between the two of them. The manager gets a little bit uptight and I think that transmits to the players. But I think now they can start to relax a bit and I would be amazed if they didn’t go on and win this title comfortably now.”

Although Redknapp thinks the title race is done and dusted, stats experts Opta still give City a 5.71% chance of ending the season as champions, while Villa’s probability of winning the league is said to be 2.65%.

Opta claim that the likelihood of Arsenal lifting the Premier League trophy this season is a whopping 91.40%.

Opta’s Premier League title probabilities

• Arsenal 91.40%
• Man City 5.71%
• Aston Villa 2.65%
• Chelsea 0.11%
• Man United 0.08%
• Liverpool 0.05%

Could Arsenal set a record for winning margin in a title race?

Redknapp said that he expects Arsenal to win the Premier League by a margin of eight to 10 points.

Should their margin of victory exceed those expectations slightly, then the 2025/26 season could be a historic one for the Gunners.

To date, Arsenal’s biggest margin of victory in a Premier League title race was 11 points. That was recorded by Arsene Wenger’s Invincibles in the 2003/04 season, when Arsenal earned 90 points and Chelsea finished second on 79.

If Arsenal stay strong all the way to the finish line — and if City and Villa begin to prioritise European games — then the possibility of Arsenal breaking their own record could become very real.

However, it seems unlikely that Arsenal will threaten the overall Premier League record for the biggest points gap from first to second at the end of a season. That currently belongs to Man City, who won the title in 2017/18 by a margin of 19 points.

Arsenal’s margin of victory in previous title-winning seasons

Season	Points for Arsenal	Distance to 2nd place	Team in 2nd
1997/98	79	1 point	Man United
2001/02	87	7 points	Liverpool
2003/04	90	11 points	Chelsea

Mikel Arteta’s points target for Arsenal is now certain to be enough

Earlier this season, Arsenal boss Arteta stated that his team would need more than 90 points to win the Premier League this season.

Arteta revealed Arsenal’s point target in mid-December when he said: “In the end you are going to have to get over 90 points to win it.”

That statement is no longer true. Precisely 90 points is now certain to be enough for the Gunners to win their first league title since 2004.

After failing to beat Spurs, the maximum total Man City can reach by winning their 14 remaining matches is just 89, while Villa can only achieve 88.

Those numbers highlight the widely held belief that Arsenal’s biggest opponent in the title race now is their own nerves.