Liverpool might have looked unstoppable at the start of this season. That was the general consensus among fans and pundits after the Reds splashed out £446.5 million during a record-breaking summer transfer window to bolster a squad that had romped to the Premier League title in Arne Slot’s first season.
But that is certainly not the consensus now. After a run of four straight losses, Liverpool are seven points below leaders Arsenal and have only an 11.11% implied probability of retaining their title, according to the latest betting odds.
Liverpool’s dramatic fall from grace has caught the football world by surprise — but perhaps we are wrong to be so shocked. After all, history tells us that managers who win the Premier League title during their first season in a job always experience a second-season dip.
How many managers have won the Premier League in their first season?
Arne Slot was the sixth manager to deliver a Premier League title in his first season in a job. The first was Chelsea legend Jose Mourinho back in the 2004/05 campaign.
Other managers to achieve the impressive feat include Carlo Ancelotti (with Chelsea in 2009/10), Manuel Pellegrini (with Manchester City in 2013/14), Claudio Ranieri (with Leicester City in 2015/16) and Antonio Conte (with Chelsea in 2016/17).
How many managers who won the Premier League in their first season also won it in their second?
Jose Mourinho is the only manager to win the Premier League in each of his first two seasons in a job. After guiding Chelsea to title glory in 2004/05, the “Special One” retained the trophy in 2005/06.
Sir Alex Ferguson also won the Premier League in each of his first two attempts, delivering the prize to Manchester United in 1992/93 and 1993/94. However, these were not Ferguson’s first two years in charge at Old Trafford — he had been in the job since 1986, more than half a decade before the Premier League was founded.
What happens to managers in their second Premier League season after winning the title in their first?
Including Mourinho, every manager who won the Premier League title in their first season in the job has experienced a dip in their second.
Mourinho was able to retain the Premier League trophy in his second season at Chelsea, but his team earned four points fewer in 2005/06 than in 2004/05.
On average, teams dropped 17.2 points the season after winning the Premier League in their manager’s debut campaign.
The biggest drop came at Leicester City, after Claudio Ranieri delivered the miracle of all Premier League miracles in 2015/16.
Ranieri stunned the sporting world by guiding 10,000/1 outsiders Leicester to Premier League glory with 81 points. But they ended the following season in 12th position with just 44 points, after ruthlessly sacking Ranieri in February.
Claudio Ranieri won the 2015/16 edition of the Premier League with Leicester, who finished 12th in the following season
The second most significant fall-off was that of Antonio Conte’s Chelsea, who fell to fifth in 2017/18 with 23 fewer points after the Italian’s side had romped to the title in 2016/17.
Conte was eventually sacked by Chelsea in July 2018 — a decision that cost the club £26.6m. As recently revealed by FootballBlog.co.uk, Chelsea are the club that has paid the most compensation to sack their managers in Premier League history.
Premier League title defences by managers who were first-season winners
| Manager (Club) | First season | Second season |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Mourinho (Chelsea) | 1st with 95 points in 2004/05 | 1st with 91 points in 2005/06 |
| Carlo Ancelotti (Chelsea) | 1st with 86 points in 2009/10 | 2nd with 71 points in 2010/11 |
| Manuel Pellegrini (Man City) | 1st with 86 points in 2013/14 | 2nd with 79 points in 2014/15 |
| Claudio Ranieri (Leicester) | 1st with 81 points in 2015/16 | 12th with 44 points in 2016/17 |
| Antonio Conte (Chelsea) | 1st with 93 points in 2016/17 | 5th with 70 points in 2017/18 |
Why do Premier League title-winning teams often struggle the next season?
It’s a pattern as old as the Premier League itself: the second season is always tougher than the first. Opponents adapt, the element of surprise disappears, and the physical and mental toll of defending success sets in.
In Arne Slot’s case, even he admits that Liverpool have yet to find answers to new challenges. Following their 3-2 defeat to Brentford, Slot was frank about his team’s difficulties against direct and defensive opposition.
“It is definitely that teams have a certain playing style against us; it is a very good strategy to play. We have not found an answer yet,” Slot told Sky Sports after Saturday’s defeat.
Brentford hit 64 long balls in that match — their highest tally of the season — exposing Liverpool’s discomfort against low blocks and aerial duels. Slot admitted the team had even dedicated their final training session before the game to defending long throws, yet still conceded from one inside five minutes.
“It’s the only thing we did yesterday on the training pitch, preparing for that and the meeting today,” he added. “But you cannot compete, which we don’t do at the moment, because we concede too many goals. That is not only the defence — you do it with 11 players together.”
Slot also pointed to the challenge of integrating six major summer signings, saying: “It has something to do with when you change a lot in the summer. I did not expect it to go with four losses in a row.”
Fatigue, tactical adjustments, and squad turnover — the classic symptoms of a second-season slump — are all at play at Anfield right now.
Can Arne Slot and Liverpool avoid the second-season curse?
Arne Slot and his Liverpool team could still match or better last season’s Premier League points tally of 84 in theory. To do so, they would need to earn at least 69 more points in their remaining 29 fixtures.
That would require a points-per-game return of around 2.38 — an average which Liverpool exceeded over the course of a season three times during the reign of former manager Jurgen Klopp.
However, things will need to improve fast and drastically for Liverpool to get their Premier League title defence back on track. They have already lost as many games this season as they did throughout the entirety of Slot’s first campaign.
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