Premier League Result Probabilities for Gameweek 13: Chelsea Given 64% Chance of Avoiding Defeat Against Arsenal

Week 13 of the 2025/26 Premier League season will be headlined by a top-of-the-table clash between Chelsea and Arsenal.

Arsenal, who have the best London derby record of any club in Premier League history, can move nine points clear in the title race by winning at Stamford Bridge, while a victory for the Blues would move them to within striking distance of the leaders.

There is another London derby this weekend as Tottenham host Fulham, while local pride is also at stake in the West Midlands as Wolves look for their first Premier League win of the season away at Aston Villa.

How Premier League predictions and result probabilities are calculated

FootballBlog.co.uk has enlisted the help of our AI Super Computer to predict the outcomes of all 10 of this weekend’s games.

As well as attempting to predict the correct final score of each match, our Super Computer calculates the likelihood of each result (home win, away win and draw).

These predictions and calculations are based on multiple match simulations, which each factor in team form, expected-goals data and home/away trends.

Premier League predictions and result probabilities for gameweek 13

Brentford vs Burnley (Saturday, 3pm)

Brentford have won four of their opening six Premier League home games this season, dropping points only against Chelsea and Manchester City.

The Bees have seen off Manchester United, Liverpool and Newcastle in their last three matches at the Gtech Community Stadium, while Burnley have lost eight of their 12 games since returning to the Premier League.

Brentford vs Burnley score prediction and result probabilities

Sunderland vs Bournemouth (Saturday, 3pm)

Bournemouth’s last 20 away fixtures have averaged 3.85 goals per game, with all but two of them delivering three or more. With both sides level on points in the top half, this has all the makings of an open but finely balanced contest.

Sunderland are unbeaten in six Premier League home games at the Stadium of Light, where they held Arsenal to a 2-2 draw last time out. Expect goals again.

Sunderland vs Bournemouth score prediction and result probabilities

Manchester City vs Leeds (Saturday, 3pm)

Manchester City return to the Etihad looking to respond after back-to-back defeats against Newcastle and Bayer Leverkusen, with Pep Guardiola expected to restore his strongest XI after heavy midweek rotation backfired.

Leeds, meanwhile, have lost five of their last six league games and have managed just 11 goals all season, with only Wolves scoring fewer. The hosts have won 23 of their last 25 Premier League games against promoted sides, and a fired-up City side will expect to reassert their authority here.

Manchester City vs Leeds score prediction and result probabilities

Everton vs Newcastle (Saturday, 5.30pm)

Everton have taken seven points from their last three Premier League games and are chasing a third straight victory after gritty wins over Fulham and Manchester United.

Newcastle, by contrast, are still searching for their first league away win of the season and have lost four successive matches on the road in all competitions, with the intensity that defines Eddie Howe’s side noticeably dropping away from St James’ Park. With this being Newcastle’s third game in eight days, Everton could also hold a crucial physical advantage.

Everton vs Newcastle score prediction and result probabilities

Tottenham vs Fulham (Saturday, 8pm)

Fulham look well placed to test a Tottenham side that are allowing 12.7 shots per game this season. The hosts could opt again to start with two strikers after Randal Kolo Muani kick-started his Tottenham career on Wednesday night with two goals and an assist for strike partner Richarlison in a 5-3 defeat by PSG.

That defeat to PSG highlighted Tottenham’s defensive frailties, which may be worsened further by the fact that captain Cristian Romero will serve a suspension on Saturday after picking up his fifth booking of the season in last weekend’s 4-1 loss at Arsenal.

Tottenham vs Fulham score prediction and result probabilities

Crystal Palace vs Manchester United (Sunday, 12pm)

Sunday’s packed schedule begins with a battle of the 3-4-3s. Crystal Palace look far more settled in the formation than Manchester United, with Oliver Glasner’s side showing far greater defensive stability than their opponents.

The Eagles have kept three consecutive Premier League clean sheets and are unbeaten in 12 home league matches, while United have won just one of their last 11 away games and continue to look fragile on the road. Palace have also won three of their past four meetings with the Red Devils.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester United score prediction and result probabilities

Aston Villa vs Wolves (Sunday, 2.05pm, live on Sky Sports)

Aston Villa have quietly established themselves as top-four contenders and sit fourth after 12 games, while also carrying momentum from their midweek European win over Young Boys.

Wolves, by contrast, remain winless and rooted to the bottom of the table, although Rob Edwards has already begun to sharpen their threat from set-pieces. That may offer the visitors a route into the game, but Villa’s superior structure, firepower and defensive balance should be enough to deliver a home win.

Aston Villa vs Wolves score prediction and result probabilities

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton (Sunday, 2.05pm)

Nottingham Forest return to domestic action eight days on from a landmark 3-0 win over Liverpool. Forest also beat Malmo 3-0 in the Europa League on Thursday and appear to have turned a corner under Sean Dyche, their third manager of the season.

Only four teams have scored more Premier League goals than Brighton this season, but their record under Fabian Hurzeler shows a clear weakness against teams who like to go direct and disrupt rhythm.

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton score prediction and result probabilities

West Ham vs Liverpool (Sunday, 2.05pm)

West Ham come into this one in buoyant mood after taking seven points from their last three Premier League matches. The Hammers have already beaten Newcastle and Burnley at the London Stadium this month.

Liverpool, by contrast, are in the midst of a prolonged slump, having lost four consecutive league games away from home and conceded at least two goals in each of those defeats. The Reds were also thrashed 4-1 at home by PSV Eindhoven in midweek. With both sides combining defensive vulnerability with plenty of attacking threat, a high-scoring stalemate seems like the most likely outcome.

West Ham vs Liverpool score prediction and result probabilities

Chelsea vs Arsenal (Sunday, 4.30pm)

Both teams come into this game on the back of superb victories in the Champions League. Chelsea beat Barcelona 3-0 at Stamford Bridge as Estevao outshone Lamine Yamal on Tuesday, before Arsenal boosted their quadruple dreams by beating Bayern Munich 3-1 on Wednesday in a game billed as a battle of the world’s two best teams.

History favours the Gunners, who have the Premier League’s all-time best record in London derbies and are unbeaten in their last seven games against Chelsea.

But Enzo Maresca’s side are growing in confidence week by week and look good enough to go toe-to-toe with the Premier League leaders. With both managers among the division’s most risk-averse in high-stakes fixtures, this has all the hallmarks of a controlled, finely-balanced contest.

Meanwhile, the headline team news is far from insignificant. Maresca has confirmed that Cole Palmer is fit to start.

Arsenal vs Chelsea score prediction and result probabilities

Summary of Premier League gameweek 13 score predictions

• Brentford 2-0 Burnley
• Sunderland 2-2 Bournemouth
• Manchester City 3-0 Leeds
• Everton 2-1 Newcastle
• Tottenham 2-2 Fulham
• Crystal Palace 3-1 Manchester United
• Aston Villa 3-1 Wolves
• Nottingham Forest 2-1 Brighton
• West Ham 2-2 Liverpool
• Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal