Premier League Title Probabilities: Arsenal Clear Favourites at Halfway Point, Man City Given 18.5% Chance

Arsenal have a 77.00% probability of ending the 2025/26 season as Premier League champions. That is according to the latest AI calculation by FootballBlog.co.uk‘s supercomputer.

With all 20 teams having played exactly half of their 38 Premier League fixtures, the Gunners are four points clear of Manchester City at the top of the table, while Aston Villa are a further two points back in third.

City missed the chance to move to within two points of Arsenal on New Year’s Day when Pep Guardiola’s side were held to a 0-0 draw away at Sunderland.

That result came 48 hours after the Gunners thrashed Villa 4-1 at the Emirates Stadium in their final game of 2025 — securing first place in the Premier League’s calendar year table in the process, having also been ranked first in 2024.

Man City rated as 18.50% outsiders in Premier League title race

Our supercomputer suggests that Man City and Villa are the only two teams with a realistic chance of denying Arsenal a first league title since 2004. City are said to have an 18.50% chance at this stage, while Villa’s title probability is 4.30%.

The remaining 17 teams are all given less than a 1% chance of topping the table come May 24.

Latest Premier League title probabilities

Team	Title probability	Predicted finish
Arsenal	77.00%	1st
Man City	18.50%	2nd
Aston Villa	4.30%	3rd
Liverpool	0.05%	4th
Chelsea	0.03%	5th
Man United	0.02%	6th
Newcastle	0.01%	7th
Spurs	0.01%	8th
Brighton	0.01%	9th
Everton	0.01%	10th
Crystal Palace	0.01%	11th
Sunderland	0.01%	12th
Fulham	0.01%	13th
Brentford	0.01%	14th
Bournemouth	0.01%	15th
Leeds	0.01%	16th
Nottingham Forest	0.00%	17th
West Ham	0.00%	18th
Burnley	0.00%	19th
Wolves	0.00%	20th

Arsenal still on course for 90 points

Back on November 5, FootballBlog.co.uk‘s supercomputer predicted Arsenal’s final Premier League points tally would be 90.

Having now taken 45 points from their first 19 games, the Gunners appear to be perfectly on track to fulfil that prediction.

Last month, manager Mikel Arteta stated that his Arsenal side would need more than 90 points to end the campaign as champions.

However, our supercomputer estimates that finishing on exactly 90 points would give Arsenal an 83.40% likelihood of winning the Premier League title.

What about relegation?

At the other end of the table, Wolves — having taken just three points from their first 19 games — are overwhelmingly expected to be relegated.

Our model gives Wolves a 98.80% probability of finishing in the bottom three. Burnley are also heavily favoured for relegation, with a 91.20% likelihood of going down, while West Ham’s poor first half of the campaign has left them firmly in danger too.

Premier League relegation probabilities

Team	Relegation probability	Predicted finish
Wolves	98.80%	20th
Burnley	91.20%	19th
West Ham	63.50%	18th
Nottingham Forest	23.80%	17th
Leeds	12.00%	16th
Bournemouth	2.00%	15th

How are Premier League probabilities calculated?

When calculating which team is most likely to end the 2025/26 season as Premier League champions, FootballBlog.co.uk‘s supercomputer runs thousands of simulations based on a combination of current points totals, recent form, historical results, expected-goals data, home and away performance, squad strength and the difficulty of remaining fixtures.

Very small probabilities have been rounded up to the nearest 0.01% where teams remain mathematically capable of winning the title, while clubs whose maximum achievable points fall below historical title-winning totals are assigned a 0.00% chance.

Relegation probabilities were distributed across the 20 teams and sum to 300%, reflecting the fact that three teams are relegated each season.