Are Newcastle United In Crisis? What’s Gone Wrong For Eddie Howe’s Side

Why are Newcastle struggling this season? A breakdown of their pressing drop-off, possession issues, injuries and analysis of Eddie Howe’s tactics.

When Eddie Howe first arrived at Newcastle United, he built his entire project on one mantra: “intensity is our identity”.

They pressed high, outran opponents, bullied them in duels, and turned matches into contests of endurance that few Premier League sides could handle. They weren’t the best team in the division, but they were often the hardest to play against.

This season, that identity has evaporated. Newcastle sit 14th, just two points above the relegation zone, and by Opta’s numbers they are winning the lowest percentage of ground duels in the Premier League.

The defeat at Brentford extended Newcastle’s run to nine away matches without a win.

So what’s gone wrong, exactly?

Newcastle’s Press And Physical Drop-Off

Newcastle’s issues stem from the fact that they’re no longer imposing themselves physically.

Last season they outran opponents in around half of their matches. This season, that has fallen to 27%, according to analyst @AndyForrester1. Their ground duel win percentage ranks bottom of the league.

They started the season relatively brightly given the disrupted summer, but across three recent away games that they definitely would’ve expected to control, they created just two clear-cut chances and conceded seven. They were also second-best in every physical contest.

These weren’t ‘performances that deserved more’. They were unrecognisably flat by Eddie Howe’s standards.

And the most damning statistic of their season: no team in the Premier League has pressed more frequently than Newcastle, but crucially, no team has won the ball in the final third less.

That contradiction is the heart of the crisis.

The structure is more or less the same, but the execution has collapsed. When Newcastle close the space, they no longer pounce with the power or aggression to force mistakes. Opponents step through the pressure and break lines with far too much ease.

Newcastle Possession Play

For over a year, Howe has tried to evolve Newcastle’s identity into more of a possession-based style.

The idea makes sense: keep the intensity, but be more controlled in possession so that intensity can be used in the right moments, rather than all the time.

But when your running stats fall off, your duels collapse, and your pressing output stops creating turnovers, the controlled-possession model needs to compensate. Newcastle’s hasn’t.

Team	Ground Duels Won %
Sunderland	53.6
Crystal Palace	53.2
Man City	52
Arsenal	51.6
Man Utd	51.3
Fulham	50.9
Chelsea	50.8
Nottm Forest	50.8
Spurs	50.6
Everton	50.3
Burnley	49.9
Wolves	49.8
Leeds	49.5
Brighton	49
Brentford	48.7
West Ham	48.5
Liverpool	48.4
Aston Villa	48.1
Bournemouth	47.3
Newcastle	46.3

In fact, it has made their weaknesses more visible.

Without Tino Livramento’s ball-carrying ability or Lewis Hall’s composure in tight spaces, Newcastle are trying to build up through fullbacks who simply don’t offer progression in the same way. Dan Burn and Kieran Trippier are still solid, dependable players, but they are not press-breaking profiles.

As a result, Newcastle have been funnelling play centrally more often than they’d like, relying on Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali to take the ball under pressure. Opponents know this, and it was evident in the 3-1 defeat to Brentford, who pounced aggressively in the middle third and robbed Newcastle repeatedly.

Woltemade Needs Help

While Newcastle’s attack has stalled without Alexander Isak, direct replacement Nick Woltemade has been doing pretty well.

He’s chipped in with a decent number of goals and looks impressive when he has the ball, but off it, he is struggling.

Statistically, he is doing plenty of defensive work – he presses, he intercepts, he competes – but he simply cannot cover the horizontal distances Newcastle require when pressing in a flat 4-5-1.

Most other teams press in a 4-4-2 with two forwards sharing that load. Newcastle ask Woltemade to do it alone, and he’s not quick enough to do it.

That turns Newcastle’s press from coordinated to stretched, and stretched presses die quickly.

In transition, his natural tendency to drop and link doesn’t really help either. When the team sits passive in a midblock and rarely wins the ball high, the forward needs to be explosive in transition. Woltemade is many things, but he is not that.

Newcastle Wingers and Creativity

Newcastle’s creativity has evaporated.

Anthony Gordon’s form has dipped. Jacob Murphy is still starting on the right, with summer signing Anthony Elanga struggling. All have created very little.

Some of this is individual, but most of it is systemic.

Newcastle’s wide players typically relied heavily on overlaps and underlaps from their fullbacks. Without Livramento and Hall – and even without Trippier for long spells – those patterns are gone.

Having Emil Krafth and Dan Burn as your fullbacks severely limits your ability to break pressure or carry attacks forward.

Teams simply funnel Newcastle inside, knowing their wide patterns are toothless.

Why Are Newcastle Worse Away From Home?

Newcastle’s defeat to Brentford means they have now gone nine away league games without a win.

In many of those games Newcastle have looked passive, defending in a flat, zonal midfield five across that concedes territory and allows runners.

The deeper defensive line – the deepest of Howe’s tenure – means less pressure on the ball and more space between the lines. Combine that with a lower ability to win the ball high, and Newcastle end up defending deeper, attacking less, and generating almost no transition moments.

To the eye, it often looks like a low block without the counter-attack element.

Have Newcastle Become Stagnant?

It’s worth comparing a typical Newcastle lineup from two years ago with the side they field most often now.

Newcastle Typical XI 2023

Newcastle Most Used XI 25/26

Note how similar the sides are in terms of personnel. Yet, while Newcastle have stayed still, the Premier League as a whole has become bigger, faster, stronger.

If you do that in the Premier League, you’re only going to go backwards, and that’s what’s happened – the rest of the league has accelerated past them.

Why Newcastle Keep Throwing Away Leads

Newcastle have dropped more points from winning positions (six) than any other team this season, which is more than they did in the entirety of last season.

But that’s not because they’re “taking their foot off the gas”. They’re being forced back.

In previous seasons when opponents pushed forward after conceding, Newcastle would simply raise their own intensity and punish them again. That second goal was their trademark.

This season, opponents raise the tempo, and Newcastle cannot match it.

Should Eddie Howe Be Under Pressure?

This is where it becomes more complicated.

How much can any manager realistically change when the starting XI has barely evolved in three seasons? Newcastle’s recruitment has been mostly smart, but most of the signings have been floor-raisers, not ceiling-raisers. The last player they bought to significantly elevate their best XI might have been Tonali in 2023.

Stand still long enough in the Premier League and the table will reflect it.

But despite the crisis narrative, Howe has still won six of his last ten in all competitions and has Newcastle well positioned in Europe.

The three dreadful away performances before the break merit criticism, but the calls to remove Howe are premature.

Are Newcastle in Crisis?

They’re close, but they’re not quite there.

A genuine crisis would require Newcastle to reach January trending toward the relegation zone. With a tough run of fixtures ahead, that scenario is possible but not certain.

What’s clear is they have a lot of problems right now. The physical identity that made them special has eroded. The new identity they want isn’t fully formed. The squad isn’t athletic enough. The press isn’t sharp enough. The wide players aren’t supported enough. The away form is grim.

The evolution towards more possession is logical, but the execution is not there yet. The returns of Hall and Livramento and the integration of Yoane Wissa should improve things.

But the bigger question is whether Eddie Howe can rebuild an identity that once felt immovable but now looks frayed. And whether he can do it fast enough.