Four Premier League managers have already been sacked this season, and it is close to certain that there will be more casualties before the campaign ends on May 24 next year.
But which managers are the most likely to keep their jobs and who are the most likely candidates for the sack?
To answer that question, we enlisted the help of FootballBlog.co.uk’s AI Supercomputer.
AI Supercomputer predicts Premier League managers’ chances of surviving the sack
Our model analyses a range of measurable and contextual factors to estimate how likely each manager is to still be in charge for their team’s final Premier League match of the 2025/26 season.
The calculation is based on five criteria:
1. Current performance vs expectation – each team’s position and points total compared with their pre-season prediction
2. Club patience – the historical average tenure of managers at each club, as detailed in our Premier League manager patience study
3. Time in the job – how settled and established the current manager is
4. Contract length remaining – how long they have left on their deal
5. Estimated compensation cost – how expensive it would be to terminate the contract
Each element contributes to an overall Survival Probability, expressed as a percentage chance of the manager still being employed by their club on the final day of the season.
Premier League manager sack survival probabilities
| Manager (Club) | In job since | Contract until | Chance of keeping job |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Arteta (Arsenal) | Dec 2019 | Jun 2027 | 95% |
| Pep Guardiola (Man City) | Jul 2016 | Jun 2027 | 89% |
| Keith Andrews (Brentford) | Jun 2025 | Jun 2028 | 88% |
| David Moyes (Everton) | Jan 2025 | Jun 2027 | 87% |
| Regis Le Bris (Sunderland) | Jul 2024 | Jun 2027 | 86% |
| Unai Emery (Aston Villa) | Nov 2022 | Jun 2029 | 84% |
| Andoni Iraola (Bournemouth) | Jul 2023 | Jun 2026 | 83% |
| Thomas Frank (Tottenham) | Jun 2025 | Jun 2028 | 81% |
| Fabian Hurzeler (Brighton) | Jul 2024 | Jun 2027 | 76% |
| Eddie Howe (Newcastle) | Nov 2021 | Jun 2028 | 74% |
| Ruben Amorim (Man United) | Nov 2024 | Jun 2027 | 73% |
| Sean Dyche (Nottm Forest) | Oct 2025 | Jun 2027 | 72% |
| Oliver Glasner (Crystal Palace) | Feb 2024 | Jun 2026 | 71% |
| Arne Slot (Liverpool) | Jun 2024 | Jun 2027 | 69% |
| Enzo Maresca (Chelsea) | Jul 2024 | Jun 2029 | 67% |
| Marco Silva (Fulham) | Jul 2021 | Jun 2026 | 66% |
| Nuno Espirito Santo (West Ham) | Sep 2025 | Jun 2028 | 64% |
| Rob Edwards (Wolves) | Nov 2025 | Jun 2029 | 61% |
| Scott Parker (Burnley) | May 2024 | Jun 2027 | 58% |
| Daniel Farke (Leeds) | Jul 2023 | Jun 2027 | 48% |
Mikel Arteta safer in his job than any other Premier League manager
Based on data from FootballBlog.co.uk’s AI Supercomputer, Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has the most secure job of any current Premier League manager.
Arteta — who is 10th on the list of the longest-serving Premier League managers of all time — is said to have a 95% chance of still being in charge of Arsenal on the final day of 2025/26.
Meanwhile, Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola — who recently celebrated 1,000 games in club management — is the second most secure, with a survival likelihood of 89%. Should Guardiola finish the 2025/26 season, he will have completed a decade of service at the Etihad Stadium.
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta is the most secure Premier League manager, according to a FootballBlog.co.uk study
Daniel Farke least likely Premier League manager to survive the season
The Premier League manager least likely to still be in his job when the current season ends is Leeds United boss Daniel Farke, according to the AI Supercomputer’s findings.
Leeds have lost four of their last five games and sit just one point above the relegation zone in 16th place.
Though Leeds were expected to be around the bottom of the table this season, there is every chance of the board rolling the dice by changing the manager later in the season if they appear to be losing their survival battle.
Indeed, our study suggests that the chances of Farke still being in charge of Leeds on the final day of the season are just 48%.
Sean Dyche given 72% chance of finishing season as Nottingham Forest boss
Nottingham Forest have already sacked two managers this season, dismissing Nuno Espirito Santo on September 8 before firing successor Ange Postecoglou less than six weeks later.
Manager No. 3 is Sean Dyche, who has signed a contract until the end of the 2026/27 campaign.
Our study suggests Forest will stick with him this season, with his chances of still being in the job on May 24 given as 72%. However, that is dependent on Dyche leading Forest well clear of the relegation zone.
If Forest stay in the bottom three well into 2026, then Dyche could well join Espirito Santo and Postecoglou on Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis’s list of victims.
Arne Slot more likely to be sacked than Ruben Amorim
Arne Slot won the Premier League with Liverpool last season, while Ruben Amorim finished 15th with Manchester United.
However, Slot is now more likely to be sacked than Amorim this season.
Amorim is claimed to have a 73% chance of still being employed by United come the end of his second season, while Slot’s likelihood of remaining in his post for the full campaign is 69%.
Liverpool manager Arne Slot (pictured) is more likely to be sacked this season than Man United boss Ruben Amorim
Another recent FootballBlog.co.uk study found that Liverpool and Manchester United have each paid more than £50m in compensation as a result of sacking managers in the Premier League era.
However, Chelsea have shelled out £156.6m in manager-related compensation since 1992.
Current Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca is said to have a 67% probability of still being in charge at the end of the 2025/26 season.
All figures were calculated and generated by FootballBlog.co.uk’s AI Supercomputer after Wolves confirmed the appointment of Rob Edwards.
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